What are “Yingluck return” factors Thaksin is talking about?

February 10, 2025: It is looking less certain former prime minister Yingluck Shinawatra would return as early as the Songkran period, particularly following latest comments by her brother Thaksin Shinawatra.

He was talking vaguely about “factors” affecting the Yingluck return timing, initially speculated to be in April. He did not spell out what the factors are, so it’s up to the analysts to try to figure them out.

The assumption is that among key factors are the results of the Provincial Administrative Organisation elections, the “rock-and-hard-place” People’s Party’s situation, and the legal woes of Thaksin himself.

The election results were nowhere near overwhelmingly satisfactory as far as Pheu Thai is concerned. This means if Thaksin’s successful return could not trigger public enthusiasm leading to an electoral landslide, Yingluck’s homecoming could not be expected to deliver anything. It could even make things worse.

Meanwhile, “politically-persecuted” politicians returning home need the support of the parliamentary opposition and like-minded media to influence public opinions to accept what’s happening. The People’s Party could not come out to support Yingluck’s return for obvious reasons, although it is supposed to side with politicians treated “unfairly” by the system.

The lack of support means Yingluck will have only Pheu Thai’s backing. She cannot expect the conservatives, the People’s Party as well as the media on its side to welcome her with open arms. The People’s Party will stay on the fence watching Pheu Thai fighting the conservatives over if, how, and when Yingluck should come back.

And while Thaksin has evaded jail, albeit narrowly and controversially, earning him the nickname “Prisoner from heaven”, legal and political troubles regarding the “14th floor” are still hounding him. Simply put, it will be a lot harder for Yingluck, if she returns, to escape the prospects of being actually put behind bars. The same tactics that helped Thaksin stay away from actual jail will never work.

One man's bully is another man's victim getting even

February 9, 2025: Nothing gives a person two faces more effectively than politics. Either Donald Trump is the bravest true American cowboy out to get the “Deep State”, or he is a vindictive evil politician misguided by totally-wrong vendetta.

To his supporters, he is the former. To haters, he’s the latter. But was more than half of America fooled last November when it handed him and his political apparatus a decisive election victory?

It’s a question that will haunt his country and much of the whole world for the next four years. But his harsh trade and diplomatic policies are another matter entirely. What Richard Gere has just said in Spain seems to reflect a Republican-Democrat feud that amplifies the saying “One’s man terrorist is another man’s freedom fighter.”

The 75-year-old American actor saw his country as a “dark place” where authoritarianism is on the rise and spreading to the rest of the world.

“We’re in a very dark place in America, where we have a bully, a thug, who’s the president of the United States,” said the man who received an International Goya Award, a major honour of the western film industry.

Whether that should be treated as a major international condemnation of Trump or as a bad advertisement of US democracy is debatable. Gere was insulting Trump, but should the voters who elected him be offended? Was Gere in effect telling the world that it should not trust American policies at least for the next four years?

Welcome to the confusing “free world”.

The anti-Trump rhetoric has it that he has now had the power to take down the “deep state” main characters who once opposed him — and almost sent him to prison. And immediately after he was sworn in as the US’s 47th president, his “vengeance” campaign was under way. He will move to crush perceived opponents in government, focusing on targets from intelligence agencies to the military, financial and business regulators, and within the law enforcement system itself.

The pro-Trump rhetoric portrays a former victim of political injustice who has now got a big mandate to bring down the deep-rooted and powerful apparatus responsible for that kind of persecution which led to massive deceptions and bad state policies that, before his resurgence, prevented America from being great again.

Is Trump a bully? Or is he a former victim seeking vengeance? Better still, is he a former victim turning into a bully?

Politics is fascinating everywhere, but a lot more so in the US.

China's stats, diplomatic pushes bad news for online scammers

February 8, 2025:With Beijing apparently getting serious, ethnic groups in Myanmar worried about their images and the Bangkok government under increasing pressure to act, border scammers’ world may be getting smaller, hopefully.

China is praising the Thai cooperation in the campaign against racketeers taking advantage of lawlessness or minimal law enforcement in some border areas, but a Thai news commentator is spot on. He said that praise in diplomacy can actually be polite pressure.

Simply put, Xi Jinping might in effect have told Paetongtarn Shinawatra, whom he has met: “Well done, but you could have done it a long time ago. Just keep going by the way.”

The diplomatic pushes are intensifying. Just a couple of days ago, China’s Foreign Minister Wang Yi called on Southeast Asian countries to take strong measures to crack down on online gambling and telecom fraud. The official said "relevant" nations have to shoulder their responsibilities.

China Dailyhas also reported, quoting the Ministry of Public Security, that Chinese police investigated as many as 73,000 cross-border gambling and related cases last year, dismantling more than 4,500 online gambling platforms.

The police in addition disrupted multiple networks soliciting gamblers and underground banks in China, which had been operated for big gambling groups overseas, China Dailysaid.

There are plenty of other statistics and government records showing Beijing’s seriousness that must worry the gangsters. The Chinese ministry said more than 3,700 people suspected of engaging in cross-border gambling, including ringleaders, financial supporters and key members of the criminal groups, were repatriated back to or persuaded to return to China in a campaign last year.

According to China Daily, Chinese police are working closely with other countries to "squeeze the space to the greatest extent" for cross-border gambling crimes targeting Chinese residents.

Concern about security, international image and domestic popularity must be driving Beijing. Myanmar, Cambodia and Laos, which are south of China and share borders with Thailand, have become major centers of online scam operations. The bad people have lured naïve ones by false advertising of well-paid jobs and are based in secretive compounds at border seams from which online scams targetting all kinds of victims are initiated.

The Thai power cuts affecting Myanmar’s border townships seem to go well beyond an egoistic showdown between Pheu Thai and Bhumjaithai. The action must have something to do with China’s thinning patience, news analysts say.

As for ethnic groups, worries about their images might help explain, at least partly, why online gangsters keep relocating. But while the ethnic leaders may need a shadowy atmosphere to operate, China’s international status is fast rising, hence “grey” or downright-bad businesses are counter-productive.

In politics, perception is everything. Think of The Godfather Party III, when the Corleone family starts a business cooperation with the Vatican in order to rebrand.

China's animation on path to global history

February 7, 2025: Forget fast trains, skyscrapers, space races, diplomatic wars and covert military showdowns. Ne Zha 2 is challenging Star Wars: Episode VII - The Force Awakens.

The two superpowers’ competitions are virtually on every facet now, and the current attention is on whether/when the Chinese animation will shatter an American proud movie record.

Ne Zha 2, an adventure animation featuring a boy with magical powers and eye-catching martial arts skills, has just topped China's box office chart after overtaking the previous record holder 2021 war epic "The Battle at Lake Changjin" on Thursday. Its $820 million earnings and counting are sending Ne Zha 2 en route to a global history by becoming the highest grosser in a single market.

A Chinese analyst was quoted by the Global Times as saying that the film might gross 9.5 billion yuan ($1.3 billion). If that happens, which is quite likely because the film now is breaching the $900 million mark, Ne Zha 2,which started just days ago in China, would surpass Star Wars: Episode VII - The Force Awakens'$936.7 million North American haul. That would be the first time a film has reached that benchmark in a single market.

It isn’t just a boasting right, mind you. Ne Zha 2is underlining the rise of the Chinese film industry and everyone knows how important movies are nowadays when political or ideological pushes are concerned.

Trump and political tears for Gaza

February 6, 2025: Palestine does not deserve political hypocrisy at all levels, regardless of what one thinks about the new US president.

Donald Trump’s Gaza plan, sarcastic or serious, is outlandish, ridiculous even. But it’s not an infamy. The real act of evil took place in the area before he became president, when Israel launched what anti-Trump media are accusing him of planning to do _ an ethnic cleansing in Gaza.

Make no mistake, Trump’s idea, expressed to some extent to please Benjamin Netanyahu, is condemnable. But it was not Trump’s administration that vetoed a UN official condemnation of the Gaza atrocity. It was not his White House that turned a blind eye to mass killings of innocent women and children. He was not president when Israeli bombs were flattening Gaza.

Trump’s imagination can morph into a crime against mankind. The western media (every single one of them) are deploring it, but not rightly so, because the vilification is a lot stronger than when the Biden government triggered the veto.

Trump suggested the US should take over Gaza and resettle the 2.1 million Palestinians living there. The relocation would purportedly make his vision of creating "the Riviera of the Middle East” come true.

The Palestinian president immediately said no. But a lot of people who are shedding tears are those standing idly or issuing meek condemnation of Israel earlier.

Political tears bring anything but true peace.

United we stand

February 5, 2025:“Divided and we will fail” is the key message from the prime minister to her party following the Provincial Administrative Organisation elections over the weekend.

Although Paetongtarn Shinawatra publicly said she was satisfied with the Pheu Thai Party’s performance at the PAO elections because its candidates won the most seats among all political parties, when talking internally with Pheu Thai members she was almost like the coach of the losing team in their dressing room.

During the post-election meeting with Pheu Thai MPs, she focused her criticism on disunity of Pheu Thai elements backing different candidates in some provinces.

“When we are united, we can win, as the results in a few provinces showed,” she told the meeting. “But we had conflicts in other provinces. We wouldn’t bend to one another. Our unity was broken. I would like to urge everyone to let go his or her ego for the party’s sake.

“We were split into three or four rival camps in certain provinces. That made our (the party’s) job very difficult. We needed to talk to all the camps. What we got was that the party could not reach its target. I would like to urge all of you to be firmly united, or the general election will be affected.”

Electricity fuss makes "call centres" issue more ridiculous

February 4, 2025: They don’t know how absurd that sounds.

Thailand and Myanmar are equally shamed in the “cut-the-power-to-call-centres” saga wreaking havoc at domestic, bilateral and border levels. But let’s forget about Myanmar at least for a while. Let’s temporarily ignore how, in the first place, Thailand and Myanmar came to endorse a business deal that must have involved both governments’ scrutiny because it concerned across-the-border electricity distribution. Let’s not ask why Myanmar could not crack down on illegal operations on its soil while it could earlier approve such an electricity transfer across the frontier.

Let’s focus on the egoistic political showdown between the Pheu Thai and Bhumjaithai parties.

Let’s ask why Defence Minister and Deputy Prime Minister Phumtham Wechayachai and Interior Minister Anutin Charnvirakul were unable to settle the who-should-order-what question inside their Cabinet room and have had to question each other through the media.

Let’s speculate why the apparent tension is rising after the Provincial Administrative Organisation elections over the weekend in which Bhumjaithai looked more as a thorn in Pheu Thai’s side.

Let’s dissect the advantages and disadvantages of the biggest coalition party untraditionally giving the Interior Ministry to a big “partner” although doing so could negatively affect key and urgent operations because the ego could always get in the way.

Abstention phenomenon

February 3, 2025: People not going to the polling booths is one thing, but people going there to declare they are not choosing anyone is absolutely another.

The phenomenal number of “No, I’m not casting my vote for any candidate” ballots in the Provincial Administrative Organisation elections over the weekend may be considered a declining state of Thai democracy. But that assumption gives way too much credit to the politicians. It could be the other way round. The Thai democracy may be at its best ever.

All political parties will need to take a long, hard look at themselves. There were times when voters gritted their teeth and took their picks because they thought they did not have a choice. Saturday was disgruntled voters taking matters into their own hands and telling political parties “Enough is enough. I don’t like what you are having so you are not going to get my vote.”

In Nakhon Ratchasima, there were almost 111,000 abstention ballots cast out of a turn-out of some 1,155,000 voters. Chiang Mai had more than 57,600 “no” votes out of some 877,600 ballots counted. In Chiang Rai, out of 605,780 people who voted, more than 43,400 did not want anybody. The number in Songkhla was over 86,800. Samut Prakarn, which is supposed to have an overwhelming number of believers in democracy, registered more than 42,100 “I don’t want any of your choices” votes.

The trend went like this all over the country.

There have been talks about Thaksin Shinawatra losing his magic, Thanathorn Juangroongruangkit not meeting high expectations, and conservative parties trying to hang in there somewhere and re-emerging with a bang somewhere else. What is equally worthy of analysis, though, is why so many voters rejected all candidates presented to them.

It’s not just happening in Thailand, mind you. People who did not go to vote in the last presidential election in America numbered more than popular votes won by Donald Trump or Kamala Harris. Of course, people have their reasons for not going to the polls, and the absentees could have taken their picks had they been able to vote, but the American number was staggering all the same.

Popularity survey adds to big parties' PAO woes

February 2, 2025: The People’s Party’s Provincial Administrative Organisation election disappointment is understandable, but what makes it more intriguing is a recent popularity survey carried out just before the weekend.

The party still leads in the North Bangkok University poll conducted between January 27 and 31, and the Pheu Thai Party still comes second, but neither camp can be pleased with the findings.

The Bhumjaithai Party, which did remarkably well in the PAO elections on Saturday, has a cause to celebrate although it comes third in the survey.

The North Bangkok Poll results go like this: Out of 1,500 Thais questioned, 20.3 % support the People’s Party whereas 16.4 % back Pheu Thai. Bhumjaithai gets 14.9%. United Thai Nation, which looked more of a threat to the People’s Party and Pheu Thai in an earlier popularity poll, only comes fourth, winning 7.1 % support, on par with the Democrats.

As we can see, in this poll, Bhumjaithai and Pheu Thai are not that far apart. Bhumjaithai is also within a striking distance of the champion of the last general election.

Absolutely jaw-dropping in the North Bangkok survey, though, is the “Not anymore” category. After all the backstabbing and ideological about-turn perceptions, one would expect Pheu Thai or any of the conservative parties to lead the table, but the findings are totally surprising. The shocks this time are across the board.

Some 54 % of people who used to support the People’s Party have changed their mind, topping this survey category. About 30 % of those who used to like Pheu Thai have stopped supporting it. Bhumjaithai’s admirers-turned-detractors are also numerous, or constituting 45 % of its support base, which makes its PAO achievements puzzling. United Thai Nation must be sweating, too, having seen almost 43 % of its fan base saying bye-bye.

Some findings explain what happened at PAO elections on Saturday, but others don’t.

Bt5 million bond is unnecessary

February 1, 2025: The minute the foreign minister entered the courtroom as a co-witness, Thaksin Shinawatra stopped being a flight risk.

If Thaksin did not return, his daughter’s government would collapse. It’s as simple as that. The bond of Bt5 million demanded by the Criminal Court which gave him the green light to travel to Malaysia was virtually unnecessary.

The presence of Maris Sangiampongsa, the foreign minister, was a bigger guarantee than anything, although it has become a subject of mockery and contempt. Not only would he have to resign if Thaksin decided to go into exile again, the whole government would be too shamed to continue.

But coming to really think about it, maybe Maris is also unnecessary. Considering that the prime minister is his daughter, whom he is trying to help in every way he can as a good daddy, that scenario (another exile, government demise, Pheu Thai’s election wipeout) will never happen. The co-witness thing was actually uncalled for.

Thaksin will return, or the daughter will stop talking to her father forever.

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