WTO cuts 2026 global merchandise trade growth forecast to 1.8 pct on higher U.S. tariffs

The World Trade Organization has lowered its forecast for global merchandise trade growth in 2026 to 1.8 percent from the previous estimate of 2.5 percent due to higher U.S. tariffs.

GENEVA, Aug. 8 (Xinhua) -- The World Trade Organization (WTO) on Friday lowered its forecast for global merchandise trade growth in 2026 to 1.8 percent from the previous estimate of 2.5 percent due to higher tariffs.

In its latest trade forecast update, the WTO said recent tariff changes are expected to have an overall negative impact on the outlook for global trade.

Higher "reciprocal tariff" rates introduced by the United States on Aug. 7 are expected to weigh increasingly on U.S. imports and depress exports of U.S. trading partners in the second half of 2025 and in 2026, the WTO said.

The WTO now projects world merchandise trade to grow by 0.9 percent in 2025, revising its earlier forecast of a 0.2 percent contraction made in mid-April following the U.S. announcement of "reciprocal tariffs" and a temporary 90-day pause on some of them.

The WTO noted that the revised growth outlook is largely driven by frontloading of U.S. imports, but emphasized that the forecast remains well below the pre-tariff estimate of 2.7 percent.

By region, Asian economies are projected to remain the largest positive driver of world merchandise trade growth in 2025, while North America will weigh negatively on global trade growth in both 2025 and 2026, according to the forecast.

WTO Director-General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala noted that the full impact of recent tariff measures is still unfolding.

"The shadow of tariff uncertainty continues to weigh heavily on business confidence, investment and supply chains. Uncertainty remains one of the most disruptive forces in the global trading environment," she said. ■