Explainer: Why is Yemen's anti-Houthi coalition facing instability?

For Yemen, the latest developments risk further fragmenting the anti-Houthi camp and complicating efforts to stabilize the impoverished country. How Riyadh and Abu Dhabi manage their dispute will play a decisive role in shaping the next phase of Yemen's protracted conflict.

By Murad Abdo

ADEN, Yemen, Dec. 31 (Xinhua) -- Yemen's Presidential Leadership Council (PLC) Chairman Rashad al-Alimi on Tuesday ordered United Arab Emirates (UAE) forces to withdraw from the country, throwing Yemen's already complex conflict into a new period of uncertainty.

The move was quickly rejected by other forces of the same Saudi-backed council, including the UAE-backed Southern Transitional Council (STC).

The dispute has also coincided with Saudi-led airstrikes on the port of Mukalla and unusually public accusations exchanged between Riyadh and Abu Dhabi, raising questions about the cohesion of the anti-Houthi coalition and the future balance of power in southern and eastern Yemen.

WHAT HAPPENED?

Al-Alimi on Tuesday announced the cancellation of a joint defense arrangement with the UAE and ordered all Emirati forces to withdraw from Yemen within 24 hours. He also declared a 90-day nationwide state of emergency, imposed a temporary air, sea and land embargo, and instructed Saudi-backed forces to take over military camps in the eastern provinces of Hadramout and Al-Mahrah.

The measures were presented as necessary to safeguard national security and public order, though no clear details were offered on how the withdrawal would be implemented or how Yemen's future security cooperation with the UAE would be managed.

Almost immediately, the decision was challenged from within the PLC. The STC, formally part of the PLC, denied that the council had reached a unanimous decision. Four PLC members, including STC leader Aidarous al-Zubaidi, later issued a joint statement rejecting what they described as unilateral and illegal decisions.

They stressed that the PLC is a collective authority and reaffirmed Yemen's commitment to the anti-Houthi coalition, describing the UAE as a key partner in countering the Houthis, combating terrorism and safeguarding regional and maritime security.

WHY DID SAUDI-UAE TENSIONS ESCALATE NOW?

The political rupture followed rapid developments on the ground in southeastern Yemen. Earlier this month, STC forces seized large areas of Hadramout after clashes with pro-government units and later expanded into neighboring Al-Mahrah, reportedly encountering limited resistance.

Oil-rich Hadramout and Al-Mahrah are strategically sensitive provinces, hosting important ports and lying close to the borders of Saudi Arabia and Oman. Control over these areas is widely viewed as critical to both Yemen's internal balance and Saudi Arabia's border security.

As tensions mounted, the Saudi-led coalition carried out what it described as "limited" airstrikes on the port of Mukalla. Saudi Arabia publicly accused the UAE of delivering weapons and combat vehicles to separatist forces without coalition authorization, calling the actions a threat to Saudi national security.

The UAE rejected the accusations, saying the vehicles were intended for Emirati forces operating in Yemen and that coordination had taken place with the Saudi-led coalition. Abu Dhabi also expressed surprise at the airstrikes, highlighting the growing strain between the two Gulf partners whose cooperation has long underpinned the anti-Houthi campaign.

Inside Yemen, senior STC figures condemned the Mukalla strikes, portraying them as unjustified attacks on a civilian port and a sign of a deeper rift within the coalition.

WHAT DOES THE CRISIS MEAN FOR YEMEN?

Analysts say the crisis reflects more than a disagreement over foreign troop deployments. It exposes a fundamental tension between Yemen's formal political institutions and realities on the ground, where armed groups backed by different regional actors wield decisive influence.

Yemen has been mired in conflict since 2014, when Houthi forces captured Sanaa and large swathes of the north, prompting a Saudi-led coalition to intervene in 2015.

Formed in 2017, the UAE-sponsored STC seeks self-determination and eventual independence for southern Yemen. Despite joining the Saudi-led coalition and integrating into the PLC in 2022, the group continues to push for southern sovereignty, leading to recurring disputes over power-sharing and control of resources.

Saudi Arabia, meanwhile, prioritizes stability along its border with Yemen and views eastern Yemen as a strategic buffer zone. These differing priorities, long managed quietly, have now surfaced openly.

As political tensions deepen, military preparations on both sides suggest the dispute could escalate into open confrontation in eastern Yemen. Reports of troop deployments and mobilization have raised concerns among residents in Hadramout and Al-Mahrah -- regions that have largely avoided front-line fighting during Yemen's decade-long war.

Key questions remain unresolved, including whether the order for UAE forces to withdraw can be enforced, whether Saudi-backed forces will successfully assume control of key military sites, and whether the PLC can restore collective decision-making.

For Yemen, the latest developments risk further fragmenting the anti-Houthi camp and complicating efforts to stabilize the impoverished country. How Riyadh and Abu Dhabi manage their dispute will play a decisive role in shaping the next phase of Yemen's protracted conflict.■