News Analysis: Türkiye to maintain strategic foothold in Syria amid U.S. retreat

by Burak Akinci

ANKARA, June 10 (Xinhua) -- As the United States is shrinking its footprint in Syria, Türkiye is unlikely to pull its troops from its neighbour soon, as security threats from Kurdish fighters remain central to Ankara's strategic priorities, experts said.

Ankara has established a significant military footprint across northern Syria since 2016 through cross-border operations aimed at pushing back the People's Protection Units (YPG), a Syrian Kurdish military force.

NATO member Türkiye views the YPG as a Syrian extension of the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK), a group it designates as a terrorist organization and has been battling for decades.

Turkish Defense Minister Yasar Guler underscored Ankara's position in comments published by Reuters last week, saying Türkiye had no immediate plans for the withdrawal or relocation of its troops in Syria.

While the Syrian civil war ended in December with the fall of former President Bashar al-Assad's government, the military dynamics in the north remain volatile, Oytun Orhan, a senior researcher at the Ankara-based Center for Middle Eastern Studies, told Xinhua.

"Türkiye perceives the YPG as a long-term strategic threat," Orhan said. "Even if the PKK announced last month it is disbanding, Ankara cannot afford to take that at face value when YPG structures continue to function with political and military capacity near its borders," he pointed out.

Turkish-backed forces continue to patrol border-adjacent areas. Meanwhile, the YPG retains a strong presence further east, often operating under the banner of the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF).

Orhan's view is reinforced by concerns in Ankara that U.S. support to the SDF, particularly in counter-Islamic State (IS) operations, has allowed the YPG to entrench itself both militarily and administratively in northeastern Syria.

Although Washington has started reducing its military presence in the country, it retains ties with the SDF, which Türkiye sees as problematic.

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan recently criticized the SDF, accusing it of "delaying tactics" despite its agreement to join the Syrian armed forces.

In an interview last week with Turkish broadcaster NTV, U.S. Ambassador to Türkiye and Special Envoy to Syria Thomas Barrack stated that the U.S. would be substantially scaling back its military presence in Syria.

Barrack said the U.S. would reduce its military base in Syria from eight to one. He also reaffirmed that the SDF remains a key partner for Washington.

As the U.S. is shrinking its footprint in Syria, Turkish military presence is becoming critical in Syria, according to Batu Coskun, an expert on Middle East affairs and non-resident fellow at the Abu Dhabi-based Trends Research and Advisory.

"Türkiye is at the center of all security-related issues in Syria," he said.

Türkiye, a key supporter of the Syria transitional government, has called on it to take action against the YPG's dominance in much of northern Syria and is closely observing the incorporation of the SDF into the Syrian government.

"Ankara is helping Damascus to form the national army, and Turkish forces there have the blessing of the transitional government to stay until security is fully established across Syrian territory," said Orhan.

Türkiye's military presence also serves a secondary goal: enabling the voluntary return of Syrian refugees. Turkish officials say that more than 250,000 Syrians have returned since December, mostly to Turkish-controlled areas, part of an ongoing effort to resettle some of the 2.7 million refugees hosted in Türkiye.

"Ankara is arguably becoming Syria's primary defence partner," said Coskun, indicating that Turkish forces have evolved from being related to Türkiye's security agenda to a wider agenda such as training the Syrian army.

In this expert's view, any negotiated Turkish exit would likely depend on the creation of a Syrian force that Türkiye deems capable of replacing its own troops in managing the YPG threat.

"Ankara is likely betting that the SDF will follow suit by disbanding like the PKK," he added.■