分析：南非選民否定ANC，加速轉向聯盟政治

作者：Nellie PeytonBy Nellie Peyton

約翰尼斯堡，11月9日（路透社）——分析人士表示，南非人在地方選舉中大幅否定非洲民族議會（African National Congress, ANC），是以施政表現取代忠誠作為投票依據，標誌著一項政治轉變：這個昔日解放運動組織已無法再主導局勢。JOHANNESBURG, Nov 9 (Reuters) - South Africans' sweeping rebuke of the African National Congress in local elections was a vote for performance over loyalty, analysts said, marking a political shift in which the former liberation movement can no longer call the shots.

ANC因貪腐醜聞及未能提供核心公共服務而廣受批評，在11月4日投票中得票率不到三分之一。這是30年前在納爾遜・曼德拉領導下帶領南非走出種族隔離制度的該黨，史上表現最差的一次選舉結果。The ANC, widely criticised for corruption scandals and failing to deliver core public services, won less than a third of votes in the November 4 poll. It was by far the worst result in history for the party that led the country out of apartheid under Nelson Mandela three decades ago.

這場選舉加深了南非政治的碎片化，並將權力轉向長期居於主導地位的ANC的競爭對手，其影響將超出地方政府層面。The election has deepened South Africa's political fragmentation and shifted power towards rivals of the long-dominant ANC, with consequences beyond local government.

未來幾週的聯盟協議，可能影響ANC在2027年的領導層之爭。屆時總統西里爾・拉馬福薩預料將卸下黨魁職務，而能主張自己最有可行路徑讓該黨重返選舉競爭力的派系，將因此獲得強化。這也會影響各政黨在2029年全國政權爭奪中的定位。Coalition deals in the coming weeks could influence the ANC's 2027 leadership contest, when President Cyril Ramaphosa is expected to step aside as party leader, by strengthening whichever faction can claim the most viable path back to electoral competitiveness. It will also affect how parties position themselves in the race for national power in 2029.

分析人士表示，ANC如今是在更弱勢的位置上談判，原因是該黨在多數主要城市只拿下第二或第三名，而且選民展現出越來越願意放棄政治忠誠、轉而看重施政表現的態度。The ANC is now negotiating from a weaker position, analysts said, after finishing second or third in most major cities and seeing voters demonstrate a growing willingness to abandon political loyalties in favour of performance.

公民社會組織「捍衛我們的民主」（Defend Our Democracy）執行主任韋德・曼寧（Wade Manning）說：「這讓我們看到，我們的民主確實已經成熟。公民不再只是給政黨一張空白支票。」"What it's shown us is that there's definitely a maturity of our democracy," said Wade Manning, Executive Director of the civil society group Defend Our Democracy. "It's no longer just a blank check that the citizens have given to political parties."

聯盟角力COALITION BATTLE

約翰尼斯堡將是最受矚目的考驗：ANC能否利用聯盟談判止住頹勢，或是其競爭對手能否把選舉斬獲轉化為持久的政治權力。Johannesburg will be the most high-profile test of whether the ANC can use coalition bargaining to arrest its decline or its rivals can turn electoral gains into lasting political power.

儘管ANC仍是最大黨，但未能在任何主要城市單獨取得控制權；在商業首都約翰尼斯堡，以及行政首都普利托利亞所在的茨瓦內，該黨都落居支持商界的民主聯盟（Democratic Alliance, DA）之後，排名第二。Although it remains the largest party, the ANC won control of no major city outright and came second to the pro-business Democratic Alliance (DA) in the commercial capital Johannesburg and in Tshwane, home to administrative capital Pretoria.

該黨在包含港市德班在內的埃特克維尼排名第三；前總統雅各・祖馬的政黨「民族之矛」（uMkhonto weSizwe）在當地取得最多選票。The party finished third in eThekwini, which includes the port city of Durban, where former president Jacob Zuma's party uMkhonto weSizwe won the most votes.

接下來兩週將展開聯盟協商，在沒有任何政黨取得過半席次的市鎮組成政府。ANC可能達成協議，使其得以保有影響力。Coalition talks will follow over the next two weeks to form governments in municipalities where no party secured a majority. The ANC could strike deals that allow it to retain influence.

但DA在8個都會區中的5個拿下第一，進入談判時選擇合作夥伴的空間大得多；與此同時，在幾個競爭激烈的市鎮，較小政黨將掌握權力平衡。But the DA will enter negotiations with considerably more room to choose its partners, having come first in five out of eight metro areas, while smaller parties will hold the balance of power in several contested municipalities.

公民社會組織歡迎這項結果，認為有助於促進政治競爭，但也警告，聯盟協議必須優先考量問責、透明度與更好的公共服務。Civil society groups welcomed the result as a boost for political competition but warned that coalition deals must prioritise accountability, transparency and better public services.

預算正義聯盟（Budget Justice Coalition）的馬茨希迪索・倫科阿薩（Matshidiso Lencoasa）說：「如果他們在聯盟決策上，繼續不把我們人民的最大利益放在最前面，我們接下來只會再有5年混亂的聯盟、混亂的政治。」"If they continue to make decisions in terms of coalitions that don't foreground what's in the best interests of our people, we're just going to have another five years of messy coalitions, messy politics," said Matshidiso Lencoasa of the Budget Justice Coalition.

從地方選舉到全國政權FROM LOCAL VOTE TO NATIONAL POWER

這場選舉是DA的勝利。該黨一直試圖擺脫「白人政黨」的名聲，並否認這個標籤。The election was a victory for the DA, which has sought to shed its reputation as a "white party", a label it rejects.

該黨表示，根據其模型推估，該黨首次贏得超過100萬名南非黑人的選票。至於該黨能否在2029年下次全國大選中，把這項支持轉化為更廣泛的授權，仍有待觀察。The party said it had won the votes of more than one million Black South Africans for the first time, based on its modelling. It remains to be seen whether it can translate that support into a broader mandate in the next national elections in 2029.

ANC的回應是承認自己未能提供基本服務，並表示已準備好改變。The ANC responded by acknowledging its failures to deliver basic services and saying it was ready to change.

ANC在選後聲明中說：「社區沒有水可用。垃圾沒有被清運……在某些地方，屬於人民的錢沒有花在人民身上。」該黨高層領導人將於本週稍晚召開會議，分析敗選原因。"Communities have gone without water. Refuse has not been collected… In some places money that belonged to the people was not spent on the people," said the ANC in a post-election statement. Its senior leaders will hold a meeting later this week to analyse the loss.

但政治分析人士威廉・古梅德（William Gumede）表示，該黨內部分歧，可能難以推動重拾選民信任所需的改革。But the party is divided and may struggle to carry out the overhaul needed to regain voters' trust, political analyst William Gumede said.

即將到來的領導層交接，將使這項任務更加複雜。拉馬福薩的ANC黨魁任期將於2027年12月結束，目前沒有明顯的接班人。因此，這場選舉潰敗可能會在ANC未來方向的爭奪中持續發酵。That task will be complicated by an approaching leadership transition, with Ramaphosa's term as ANC leader ending in December 2027 and no obvious successor in place. The electoral rout could therefore reverberate through the battle over the ANC's future direction.

古梅德表示，雖然ANC仍掌控政府最高層級，但這次選舉結果可能削弱該黨的公信力。Although it still controls the highest levels of government, the ANC's credibility may be undermined by the election result, said Gumede.

他說，該黨的敗選已在社群媒體上成為笑柄。一段喜劇短片嘲諷該黨無能；另一支影片中，人們則為ANC上演一場假葬禮。Its loss has already become a punchline on social media, he said. One comedy sketch mocked the party's incompetence, while in another video people staged a mock funeral for the ANC.

古梅德說：「一旦你走到那個地步，你的權威就沒了。」"Once you get into that space, your authority is gone," said Gumede.

（Nellie Peyton報導；Sfundo Parakozov與Anathi Madubela補充報導；Bate Felix、William Maclean編輯）(Reporting by Nellie Peyton; Additional reporting by Sfundo Parakozov and Anathi Madubela;Editing by Bate Felix, William Maclean)