小型手機與筆電製造商準備迎戰多年記憶體短缺

作者：Nathan Vifflin、Emanuele BerroBy Nathan Vifflin and Emanuele Berro

路透9月16日電——獨立手機與筆電製造商正在重新設計產品、檢測收到的晶片是否為假貨，並轉嫁成本。這場他們預期將持續到2027年的記憶體短缺，正擠壓裝置市場的低階產品區間。Sept 16 (Reuters) - Independent phone and laptop makers are redesigning products, testing incoming chips for fakes and passing on costs as a memory shortage they expect to last through 2027 squeezes the lower end of the device market.

三家公司高層表示，真正的限制在於能否取得供貨，而不是價格。Availability, not price, is the binding constraint, executives at three companies said.

荷蘭可維修手機製造商Fairphone執行長雷蒙・范艾克（Raymond van Eck）表示：「如果拿不到配貨，無論如何你都出局了。」"If you don't have allocation, you're out of the game anyhow," said Raymond van Eck, chief executive of Dutch repairable-phone maker Fairphone.

記憶體製造商SK海力士（SK Hynix）執行長7月表示，從供給角度來看，2027年將是「產業史上最糟的一年」，需求將在2030年後仍超過產能。Memory maker SK Hynix's CEO in July said 2027 would be "the worst year in the industry's history from the supply perspective," with demand outstripping capacity beyond 2030.

Counterpoint Research 6月預測，智慧型手機出貨量今年將下降13.9%至10.8億支，創下有紀錄以來最大年度跌幅，原因是記憶體成本使入門級手機變得不具生產經濟性。Counterpoint Research forecast in June that smartphone shipments would fall 13.9% this year to 1.08 billion units, the steepest annual decline on record, as memory costs make entry-level phones uneconomical to build.

漲勢放緩，短缺未解THE RALLY SLOWS, THE SHORTAGE DOESN'T

集邦科技（TrendForce）預期，本季傳統揮發性記憶體（DRAM）合約價將上漲13%至18%，低於第一季的93%至98%。TrendForce expects conventional volatile memory (DRAM) contract prices up 13-18% this quarter, against 93-98% in the first.

由前諾基亞（Nokia）工程師創立的芬蘭手機製造商Jolla表示，其儲存與DRAM整合封裝價格在3月底升至高點後一直維持在該水準，與春季時預測到秋季會翻倍的看法不符。Jolla, a Finnish handset maker founded by former Nokia engineers, said its combined storage and DRAM package rose to a peak at the end of March and has held since, confounding spring forecasts of a doubling by autumn.

Jolla執行長薩米・皮耶尼邁基（Sami Pienimäki）表示：「當然，就目前而言，我們對此非常高興。」他預期供應要到2028年起才會恢復正常。"We are very happy for that, of course, for the time being," said Chief Executive Sami Pienimäki, who expects supply to normalise only from 2028.

美國可維修筆電製造商Framework執行長尼拉夫・帕特爾（Nirav Patel）表示，供需失衡的規模在去年底變得明顯，促使「所有人都試圖盡可能多、盡可能快地搶供貨、搶庫存」，使短缺加劇。The scale of the mismatch became clear late last year, said Nirav Patel, chief executive of U.S. repairable-laptop maker Framework, prompting "everyone trying to grab as much supply, as much inventory as they could, as quickly as they could", which deepened the shortage.

Framework負擔不起囤貨成本，因此在尚未得知最終價格、交貨時間或數量的情況下，就提前很久下達不可取消的訂單。Unable to afford a stockpile, Framework places non-cancellable orders well ahead without knowing final price, timing or volume.

為短缺而設計DESIGNING FOR SCARCITY

Jolla設計了兩種主機板版本，以便將整合封裝替換為分離式晶片。Framework則從一開始就採用模組化記憶體設計；如今顧客會安裝從舊機器拆下的記憶體。Jolla designed two motherboard variants so it can swap the combined package for discrete chips. Framework made memory modular from the start; customers now fit memory salvaged from older machines.

Jolla會對每一批收到的樣品進行壓力測試，確認晶片是新品，而不是以全新品名義轉售的翻新品。皮耶尼邁基表示，哪裡價格飆升，賣家就會跟著出現。Jolla stress-tests samples from every batch it receives, checking the chips are new rather than refurbished parts resold as first-hand. Where prices spike, Pienimäki said, sellers follow.

范艾克表示，在售價約400美元的手機中，記憶體可能占物料清單成本近60%。各家公司以不同方式轉嫁這項成本：Framework在成本反映後迅速調整價格，Jolla新增付費記憶體升級方案，而Fairphone完全沒有漲價。Memory can account for almost 60% of the bill of materials on handsets priced around $400, van Eck said. Each firm passes that on differently: Framework reprices quickly as costs land, Jolla added a paid memory upgrade, and Fairphone has not raised prices at all.

（Nathan Vifflin、Emanuele Berro發自格但斯克；Matt Scuffham編輯）(Reporting by Nathan Vifflin and Emanuele Berro in Gdansk; Editing by Matt Scuffham)