‘Undecided” shrinks, but so do expectations

Latest pre-election polls confirm one thing, that the previously-massive group of ambivalent voters is getting ever smaller. That natural development is good news for every political party, yet all the findings of the popularity surveys can also hamper the minimal optimism that ballots cast can change Thailand this time.

From being the biggest group of voters, those “undecided” have fallen significantly in size behind people supporting the People’s Party, the Bhumjaithai Party and their leaders.

Analysts are not surprised. When an election gets nearer, more and more voters naturally make up their minds. This, however, does not mean that the late deciders are hopeful. It’s very likely that they will be voting with a strong sense of resignation, having a pipe dream of getting the best among the equals.

Lowered expectations are not exclusive to voters, though. The People’s Party, for example, has gone from targeting a landslide big enough to form a single-party government to hoping to just edge it. The Orange apparently remains the most popular party, but opinion polls have also shown that Bhumjaithai is dramatically closing the gap.

Pheu Thai, the top favourite in the 2023 election, is just expecting to stay relevant this time. The Red must have lost a sizable portion of its fan base to the Orange because of the controversial union with the conservatives and suspicious previous relationship with Cambodia.

The same goes for some key conservative parties instrumental in the Thai politics over the past few years, Palang Pracharath and United Thai Nation. Their expectations cannot be lofty, and being able to have just a little say over this or that is fine.

The only two parties that can realistically have higher expectations are Bhumjaithai and the Democrats. The former has unexpectedly emerged a strong challenger for the election glory currently held by the People’s Party. The latter practically has had no way to go but up, and the return to the helm of Abhisit Vejjajiva should be a great booster.

Key things to watch on February 8 are whether Bhumjaithai can catch the People’s Party up, or at least close the gap especially in terms of popular votes; how famous the Orange party remains in Bangkok, which it dominated almost absolutely in 2023; and whether a perceived Democrat revival is real.

One curious and potential factor is an online statement from Cambodia that left everyone flabbergasted. Keo Remy, Phnom Penh’s senior minister in charge of human rights, has asked Thai voters to reject Bhumjaithai and support the People’s Party or Pheu Thai if they want to end the border war for good.

The People’s Party and Pheu Thai certainly don’t need that kind of advertisement. In fact, Bhumjaithai should send him a thank-you note. First of all, Thailand’s pre-election environment contains a large degree of nationalism. Second of all, with the “We don’t trust Cambodian politicians” sentiment prevailing, he is effectively telling Thais “If you trust me, vote Orange or Red.”

The People’s Party’s and Pheu Thai’s silence tells a thousand words. They can never say “See? Even a Cambodian leader likes us more.” He has done nothing except remind Thais about that infamous Hun Sen phone conversation and about “What the military is for”, which is anti-Orange rhetoric at the moment.

The latest storm to batter the Orange ship came about two days ago, when another election candidate got arrested for alleged connections with a “grey” business. If an earlier arrest of a People’s Party’s election applicant shocked the Thai public and put the apparently-growing determination to eliminate political association with dishonest businesses in doubt, the latest capture may have just shattered the fragile optimism.

How politically impactful is the arrest of Ratchapong Soisuwan, who was allegedly linked to a gambling web? Not much if at all if he was a member of any other party. But the People’s Party is campaigning electorally on a “No grey” platform, in the process accusing rival politicians of being involved with massive underground transactions, bribery and vice.

More arrests related to the Orange could make the damage beyond repair. Another problematic scenario has to do with rumbling claims that suspicion about Ratchapong’s background had never been a secret. There have allegedly been attempts to tell the People’s Party about his potential problems, but alleged party reactions had been “Give us evidence and we will take care of it.”

The party obviously does not want the Ratchapong situation to get worse. Yes, it is politically devastating, but problems will multiply if the public and legal authorities stop “individualizing” it.

The People’s Party’s leadership is already in big trouble even as it tries to distance itself from an “individual” background that had been “impossible” to thoroughly check. The conservatives are asking why it has always claimed to have strong, irrefutable evidence against rival politicians over grey activities but failed to have information solid enough to keep Ratchapong away from itself, let alone Parliament.

Pictures of Ratchapong posing with People’s Party leaders are being used to mock the camp’s previous scrutiny of a photo of its rivals posing with a questionable character.

Yet it remains to be seen how Ratchapong’s case will actually affect the People’s Party’s chances in the general election. But as for the general Thai public, the expectations are getting lower and lower, after the fleeting encouragement of seeing “grey businesses” in the political conversation.

All of a sudden, the “No grey” election platform of the biggest political party does not look like a good idea. The People’s Party had needed that platform, because there are no “uncles” to “switch off” this time and the Thai military is a lot more popular than in 2023.

No pun intended, but Thai politics will only get “greyer”. The Orange versus its opponents was never good for public interest in the first place, but at least the showdown straightforwardly featured black and white. (Who was white and who was black could spark an endless debate.) Not anymore.

The black and white are threatening to mix now, if they have not blended already.