Peace talks, troop rotation key factors in southern unrest

The resumption of peace talks and an upcoming military troop rotation are believed to be among the factors behind a series of incidents in Thailand’s southernmost provinces over the weekend, according to Thanut Suvarnananda, chief negotiator for the southern peace talks.

The attacks could be aimed at strengthening the position of insurgents ahead of the next round of negotiations, which are expected to take place in late October, he said.

“They may attempt to create bargaining power at the negotiating table,” he said before attending a security meeting chaired by the prime minister at Government House.

Thailand should carefully prepare for the talks because rushing into negotiations could put the government at a disadvantage and lead it to quickly accept demands from the other side, he said.

Thanut, who is also National Intelligence chief, said another factor could be the upcoming rotation of military personnel, which attackers could see as a temporary gap that would allow them to assess the weaknesses of the forces.

Some of the incidents, particularly in Yala, appeared to be intended mainly to cause disruption, he said.

Thanut also pointed to attacks on local administrative organisations, including the burning of government buildings and vehicles, as possible symbolic acts.

Intelligence officials were assessing the incidents to determine the factors behind them, he said.

He also said the country was currently in the rainy season, which could damage materials prepared for attacks, prompting the perpetrators to take the opportunity to carry out their operations.

Asked why authorities appeared unable to detect the large number of people involved in the attacks in advance, Thanut said the perpetrators did not necessarily inform one another beforehand.

He also acknowledged that the incidents might be linked to losses suffered by criminal groups as a result of the government’s crackdown on illegal activities.

Most incidents in Yala appeared to be acts of disruption, and there had been no major seizures of illegal goods linked to the incidents there, he said.

In Narathiwat, however, authorities had made a number of seizures, including large drug busts, while similar operations had taken place in Pattani.

Authorities therefore needed to determine which groups were responsible and whether they were linked to groups operating in other areas, he said.

“We can see a clearer picture once the incidents are categorised, but we cannot yet say definitively which group was responsible because officials are still gathering evidence,” Thanut said.

As for measures to deal with the violence, Thanut said the military might need to reorganise its forces and develop new approaches to address the situation.

The issue should also be raised at the peace talks for further assessment, including whether safe zones should be established, he said.

The government’s special representatives should also consult with military officials in the area on how to respond, he added.

Thanut said Malaysia, which serves as a facilitator for the peace talks, could also play a role in strengthening border security.

Thailand would need cooperation from Malaysia to prevent perpetrators from crossing the border back and forth, he said, adding that tighter surveillance along the border might be necessary during this period.