Can the retirement lottery live up to its promise for low-income earners?

Thailand is on the verge of launching its path-breaking retirement lottery, following the recent amendment to the National Savings Fund (NSF) Act published in the Royal Gazette.

Unlike the conventional government lottery, which is primarily a form of gambling, the NSF lottery is designed to encourage low-income earners to save for retirement. With the scheme poised to take off, the question remains: Will it truly make a difference for those who are addicted to the traditional lottery, and is it a viable solution to the country’s pension problem?

How the NSF lottery works

Anyone aged 15 and above will be eligible to purchase NSF lottery tickets, with a minimum price of 50 baht and maximum purchases of 3,000 baht per month.

The draw will take place every Friday, offering a first prize of 1 million baht (five prizes in total) and a second prize of 1,000 baht (10,000 prizes). The government plans to sell 5 million tickets for each round. The winners can collect their prizes immediately, while their investment remains in their NSF account.

Importantly, those who do not win will not lose their money. Instead, their ticket purchase amount will be converted into an investment account, and the principal, along with investment returns, will be returned to them upon reaching the age of 60. Participation is also possible for those over 60, but funds must remain in the account for at least five years before withdrawal.

The Finance Ministry projects that the retirement lottery could attract 13 billion baht in fresh funds annually, with government subsidies for prizes totaling around 800 million baht per year.

Can a caretaker government implement it?

There are questions on whether the caretaker government, led by Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul, can effectively implement the NSF lottery. Jaruluk Ruangsuwan, secretary-general of the National Savings Fund, is confident that they can.

“It is a normal legal procedure that the Finance Ministry would put in place relevant regulations,” she noted. Jaruluk expects membership in the NSF to rise significantly, especially if large numbers of students participate. The NSF expects to add at least 150,000 new members next year.

Currently, around 8 million workers are not covered by any pension scheme—Social Security Fund, Government Pension Fund, or Provident Fund. “Of the 8 million, 2.8 million are currently under the National Savings Fund, but we do not know where the other 5 million are,” Jaruluk said. The existing NSF savings product is not attractive enough, with many—especially farmers—postponing savings when approached by NSF staff.

Challenges of existing pension schemes

Self-employed workers and freelancers can currently save with the NSF, with a minimum annual contribution of 50 baht and a maximum of 30,000 baht. The government matches the contributions but not exceeding 1,800 baht per year. The NSF membership stands at 2.84 million—still a small fraction of those without pension coverage.

With the introduction of the NSF lottery, Jaruluk believes membership will increase significantly, as the scheme is open to everyone.

Inadequate income for pensioners

Most pensioners do not have sufficient income to sustain themselves. “Even those covered by the Social Security Fund, their pension amount is very small—not enough to even keep pace with the electricity bill,” Jaruluk added. The World Bank recommends a pension replacement rate of 50–60 per cent of pre-retirement income to maintain living standards, a target that remains out of reach for most Thai retirees.

Thanavath Phonvichai, president of the University of Thai Chamber of Commerce, is optimistic about the NSF’s potential: “A larger assets base would leverage the NSF to achieve higher returns on investment for its members,” he said.

Jaruluk revealed that the current NSF asset base is 15 billion baht, aiming to deliver investment returns at least 1 per cent higher than the inflation rate.

An aging society

Thailand has fully entered an aging society, with the number of people aged 60 and above reaching 14 million, or 20 per cent of the total population last year, according to the National Statistical Office. The main source of income for the elderly is support from their children (35.7 per cent), income from labor (33.9 per cent) and pension (only 6.8 per cent).

Can the initiative make a difference?

The retirement lottery offers a novel approach to encouraging savings among low-income earners, particularly those drawn to the excitement of the conventional lottery.

By ensuring that ticket purchases become an investment rather than a gamble, the scheme could help shift behavior from risky betting to long-term financial planning.

However, its success will depend on effective implementation, sustained government support, and whether it can truly appeal to those most in need. As Jaruluk noted, “We do not know where the other 5 million are.” Finding and engaging this segment will be crucial to the scheme’s impact.

Ultimately, solving Thailand’s pension challenges requires more than a lottery—it demands a comprehensive strategy to ensure that all citizens can retire with dignity and financial security.

Jaruluk mentioned that in some countries, participation in pension schemes is mandatory. The NSF retirement lottery may be a step in the right direction, but it remains to be seen whether it can deliver on its promise for the nation’s low-income earners.