Is Thai political equilibrium losing balance?

December 14, 2024: Is what Thaksin Shinawatra said in Hua Hin this weekend a tipping point? It’s extremely provocative and making the already-uncertain political future of his daughter Paetongtarn even more precarious.

The Thai parliamentary politics exists on a very fragile equilibrium, with the Red forming a reluctant and begrudged alliance with the Yellow conservatives. If the latter were doubters, what Thaksin did in Hua Hin was loading them with a lot more doubts.

The conservatives can’t like it. The Orange must have quietly been pleased. The Pheu Thai Party including the prime minister must be exclaiming “What?!?”

And this is coming at a time of growing conservative restlessness over the Kut island affair as well. (Last week, Thaksin was challenging anyone who think MoU44 is a bad idea to a face-to-face debate. At Hua Hin, he sounded even more belligerent, saying that only “buffalos” would befriend someone and accuse the new friend of trying to give that piece of land to the Cambodians.)

Thaksin is not Pheu Thai’s lightning rod, mind you. The lightning rod is supposed to keep the building safe. He is an expanding hole in the Pheu Thai ship. In the whole government ship to be exact.

Love-hate triangle

December 13, 2024: Joe Biden, struggling with a teleprompter, has slammed Donald Trump’s planned tax barriers, but the outgoing US president seemed to have forgotten to tell his wife, Jill, not to create pro-Trump news by looking at Time’s latest Person of the Year that curious way.

Photos and videos of Jill Biden and Trump at the reopening of the Notre Dame Cathedral in France a few days ago have gone viral. “You should find a person who looks at you like Jill looks at Trump” is a popular caption.

The new line of Trump fragrances also trolled Jill Biden in a cute way in its promotion. The advert for the “Fight, Fight, Fight” line says something like “For just $199 you will get a whiff of victory and charm and strength, something even your enemy can’t resist.”

You can’t totally blame Trump and his businesses. Jill Biden has sparked all kinds of speculation. She wore a red dress on the US election day. She ignored the woman who replaced her husband as the Democratic Party’s presidential candidate. And at a recent White House event, she talked curiously about “Joy”, a Harris campaign buzzword.

Speaking at a conference on advancing women’s health research just a few days ago, she said the attendees must take note of the White House décor and “feel, I don’t know, a little, a sense of joy. Because I think we all need like this, you know, we all need to feel joy now.”

Polite yet acknowledging laughter greeted that, and she promptly said: “You are all reading into that.”

Joe, meanwhile, is doing what he has to do, albeit in an awkward manner which has become part of his character somewhat. World media were not sure which one to highlight _ his criticism of Trump’s planned tax hikes for foreign commodities entering the United States as well as an anti-China extreme trade policy, or problems in front of Biden when the teleprompter short-circuited.

Biden with a teleprompter is already worrisome these days. Without one he can make everyone hold his or her breath entirely.

Biden scraped through, but he was visibly having a tough time. “One of the things that’s going on here — they just turned off my … I lost electricity here, anyway,” Biden said just 10 minutes into his speech at the Brookings Institution in Washington, D.C. He was talking about his government’s economy records and criticising Trump’s policy.

He said the planned tax hikes would be a big mistake and can cause a disaster, and that American businesses would suffer more. Also, he said he wished Trump would throw away Project 2025, a pro-Republican economic, political and social suggestive blueprint considered by some to be too extreme.

The criticism came days after Biden welcomed Trump to the White House during which the two, joined by Jill, acted like long-lost buddies.

So much for “Trump is modern-day Hitler”. Watching American politics nowadays is like watching wrestling. You know that nothing is real, and that they treat anyone who watches like a 10-year-old kid, but you enjoy watching it anyway.

Prachin Buri shooting underscores violence in rural politics

December 12, 2024: Nothing screams real-life “terror” louder than fatal gunshots inside the biggest house in the neighbourhood and the time it takes to find the killer(s).

The lethal shooting inside the Wilawan house in Prachin Buri bears all the characteristics of the violence of rural politics: It stinks to high heaven and yet, from the look of it, investigation will likely drag on for a ridiculously long time; the slain is someone who could not have easily been gotten to by standard enemies; and apart from local political conflicts being mentioned as a potential cause, national politics will play a role.

Last but not least, corruption rumours are swirling. They are a subplot at the moment but they might be upgraded into the main plot. The “Bt20 million” in an intriguing audio clip featuring what sounded like the dead man’s voice shortly before he was killed will be thoroughly investigated by reporters.

It’s hard to tell if national politics needs the help of violence-prone rural politics or it is vice versa. Or if both have to rely on each other at the expense of much-needed transparency and honesty every civil society requires.

It is still unclear how many people are suspects and how many will be witnesses. Thisis an initial report of a simple case that, Thais will be told, is complicated.

The Kamnan Nok scandal remains unsolved and now this.

Did Piyabutr forget something?

December 11, 2024: One “pro-democracy” man has proposed the most coup-inviting charter amendment Thailand has ever seen.

Piyabutr Saengkanokkul, a Progressive Movement senior member, suggested on his Facebook that a future Thai charter should include clauses that will punish leaders of the 2014 coup, prohibit military and justice officials from getting involved in or making rulings in favour of future coups; allow for retroactive penalising of coup leaders; make coup a crime without statute of limitations; give the political side strong or full power in military appointments, provide the prime minister with exclusive power to declare martial law; and strengthen Thailand’s international justice commitment hence allowing bigger says for world judges.

They all sound good, but if these clauses were embedded in the new Constitution, the military would tear it apart on Day One and introduce an interim charter that nullifies it, giving birth to a new generation of Piyabutr who may propose more or less the same thing and the loop will go on.

Piyabutr asked “Are you brave enough to do it?” at the end of each proposed measure. Actually, what he proposes does not have anything to do with bravery. “Realistic” sounds a more appropriate word.

How about no corruption? Safe, good for the country, and needing only a strong political will because all measures are in fact practical and easier to write down. As importantly, a corruption-free political environment will significantly dilute a coup pretext.

Less about politicians and more about ordinary people, please

December 10, 2924: Thailand has changed its charter numerous times, and every time it had to do with what politicians wanted, which they said was what the people on the street wanted.

Truth is that the political side got it all wrong. The ordinary people didn’t care about what the politicians said they wanted. The people wanted food on the table. They wanted a country free of crimes. They wanted affordable taxes so they could spend without heavy feelings, expand businesses without too-much worrying and have enough left for saving in the process.

They wanted the narcotic drugs to go away. They wanted extremely-good and extremely-cheap education for their children. They wanted a healthcare system that guaranteed that their life savings will not be wiped away if a bad disease struck. They wanted solid bridges and public structures that did not collapse every three months. They wanted a justice system which could send rich criminals or suspects to prison or trial at the same speed as the poor ones, and which prescribed and executed punishment equally and fairly no matter who the convicts were.

They wanted to pay minimum Wi-Fi fees. They wanted cheapest power for their homes and their cars. They wanted politicians to tell business owners that the people “own” natural resources, too, so the rip-off of frequency- or gas-related commodities or services were unconstitutional.

They wanted clean, reliable, cheap and efficient mass transport. They wanted good traffic. They wanted banks, the police and internet service providers to really work against “call centre” scammers. They wanted quick and effective relief action when disasters like heavy flooding hit.

They did not want legalization of gambling to be a political debate that could drag on forever. They just wanted everyone in charge to do his or her best to ensure that the best rules against abuse or corruption were enforced sufficiently if gambling was to be legal. The same went for cannabis and abortion.

They wanted the government to “serve” in the most original and genuine sense of the word. They did not want to receive “services” they deserved while feeling like they were begging desperately for help every time. They wanted the bribe culture to end.

The ordinary people were not interested in how electoral zones were carved, how many ballots they had to mark, or what kind of power the Senate had as long as the above-mentioned wishes were fulfilled. They did not want the Constitution to exist just for those who fought in politics to find loopholes so they could eradicate enemies. They wanted a Constitution espousing real values, which concern nothing but ways to improve their daily lives.

To mark the Thai Constitution Day, If the charter is to be changed again, the highest law of the land must ensure that all politicians and all ministries give Thais what they really want. And the rest, as they say, will take care of itself.

US post-election Round One goes to …

December 9, 2024: Coming on the heels of Kamala Harris’ “Our fight is not over yet” post-defeat comment, Donald Trump’s “I will treat you every bit as good as I treat my supporters” post-victory message to her supporters gave him the Round One in the still-volatile aftermath of the presidential race.

But make no mistake, losers sounding bitter and winners sounding patronizing is not uncommon, especially in politics. Yet comparisons are being drawn, and they are mostly in the president-elect’s favour at the moment.

US President Joe Biden’s controversial “garbage” remark is coming into play in online showdowns as well after Trump has told NBC that he would try to bring unity back, and that only success in combatting crimes, improving the economy and restoring the US global standing can enable him to achieve that.

Online comments apparently from his supporters mostly are along the lines of “That’s my president right there”. Harris’ emotional clip posted days after the presidential election focused entirely on her supporters who she said must not let anyone their power away. Hers is considered defiant but his is perceived as reconciliatory.

"I’m going to treat you every bit as well as I have treated the greatest MAGA supporters," Trump said when asked what was the first thing he wanted to tell the people who didn't vote for him. Trump was joining NBC News' Kristen Welker on Sunday for his first major interview since winning the presidential election.

"These people are so dedicated to making America great again, it’s very simple. And I’m going to treat them just the same as I treat MAGA. We’ll treat everybody good. We want success for our country, we want safety for our country," the president-elect added.

“I want to treat everybody the same. I want to treat them well. … But we have to get the criminals of our country. We have to bring down crime. People have to be able to walk across the street and buy a loaf of bread without being shot. And that’s going to happen. But what I say to them (Harris’ supporters) is I love you, and we are going to all work together. And we are going to bring it together. And do you know what’s going to bring it together? Success.”

He also told Welker, an “insufferable” interviewer if you are a rightist and “fearless” questioner if you are a leftist, that his inaugural address would focus on a message of unity.

Trump’s critics, of course, are saying that he would have said it differently had he lost. They may be right, considering what happened on January 6, 2021. It could have been a role reversal after last month’s election between the two had the results gone the other way. But if you can only judge what is in front of you, Round One post-election has gone to him.

Mocking "the southerner's wife"

December 8, 2024: Never underestimate the power of political mockery. If applied properly, it can be deadly, a lot more effective than straightforward criticism.

Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra has attracted both playful and serious contempt in no small measure. She is Thailand’s post-election Kamala Harris. She is threatening to overtake her aunt Yingluck Shinawatra in term of regular mockery, because a major difference is that Paetongtarn is facing it left and right, literally and ideologically.

We don’t see left-leaning newscasters/commentators speaking highly of right-wing opinion leaders that often, but when it comes to Paetongtarn, even Seri Wongmontha’s “Teasers can get tired, too” comment has spearheaded the former's criticism of the prime minister.

That she is Thaksin Shinawatra’s daughter subjected her to a serious scrutiny, but that subject can get into a boring loop easily. Mocking how she adjusted her hair in public, how she confounded foreign dignitaries or interviewers, or how she cited her love life when talking about a national affair, meanwhile, can have a fountain of content materials.

Political mockeries precede several high-profile downfalls. This fact can’t be truer in the era of social media where contemptuous content, smart or else, can go viral effortlessly, stay forever and remain within just one click away on the internet.

So, Paetongtarn is facing two big battlefronts. On one side looms the likes of the usual-suspect “serial petitioners”, the National Anti-Corruption Commission and the Constitutional Court. Coming at her on the other side are memes and not-so-serious YouTube clips.

And all the while we are seeing a glimmer of one more jaw-dropping political trend. Yellow and Orange critics are joining hands to mock her. The development is taking place in a very shy and limited manner, but, remember, this is Thailand, where shy can become outrageous in an instant.

VAT hike would make govt crumble like house of cards

December 7, 2024: Stay calm. While Thailand is no stranger to political ironies, a VAT increase and “digital wallet” going hand in hand would be too much for anyone to handle.

In other words, there is no way the VAT will go up. If the Paetongtarn administration does not want to become a sandcastle before an incoming sea storm, that is.

She has insisted the VAT would never be raised, but Thais don't need such a guarantee. A lot of people have demonised the "digital wallet", but its outstanding merit is that it helps make sure the current VAT rate will remain.

A major reason for low VAT rates is they will stimulate economic growth. They help increase consumption, encourage spending, promote job creation and hence boost the economy. For example, low VAT rates on construction services can tempt people to renovate or improve their homes, a boon to economy in the construction sector.

In addition, affordable VAT very significantly helps small businesses or starters.

In short, all big, small businesses and consumers will benefit. And so will governments especially ones claiming that fixing the economy and helping the poor or the vulnerable are their agendas.

There is only one reason they increase the VAT: the government is broke.

And the Paetongtarn government cannot be perceived to be desperate for money.

Let's hear from third US presidential runner Jill Stein

December 6, 2024: One highly-significant voice was drowned out amid the Trump-Harris tumult over the past few months.

Green Party’s Jill Stein received more than 780,000 votes in the November American presidential election, some 26,000 more votes than Robert Kennedy (independent). It was less than one per cent of the turnout and a lot of ordinary people did not hear her name on the mainstream media on the election day.

She got this to say on the US foreign policy, in an interview marking the continued fight of the “truth movement” for reinvestigation of the 2001 9/11 incident:

“To me, this (seeking the whole truth about 9/11) is about the mystery of US foreign policy and all the intrigue that surrounds it. (Also) the story is not simple. The story is not over. The story is just full of deception. The general public are told to believe that we are a force for good, that we are an exemplary model of democracy and all that, and yet the truth is we have committed regime-change operations some 70-80 times since the World War II and we have sent our troops into other countries 250 times according to congressional research service just in like the last 30 years.

“… Our foreign policy is not to be taken at face value by any means. I’m running for president. If I were president, on Day One we would begin congressional hearings on basically US foreign policy (and all the forces) that determine our foreign policy.”

Trump won't do it. Harris would not.

Watch Facebook

December 5, 2024: Everyone knows about Donald Trump and Elon Musk. Now, imagine Mark Zuckerberg becomes their full-blown ally, out of business necessity or not.

Developments are suggesting a potential thawing of Trump-Zuckerberg previously-hostile relationship. The Meta CEO has sent out all sorts of signals suggesting he wants to actively help shape the technology policy in the incoming Trump administration. He has met Trump recently at Mar-a-Largo. His company even admitted it might have gone too far against harmless content in the past, indirectly referring to harsh action against the president-elect.

To a lot of people, the biggest telltale sign of Zuckerberg’s U-turn was when he described Trump's response to an assassination attempt as "badass”.

“Seeing Donald Trump get up after getting shot in the face and pump his fist in the air with the American flag is one of the most badass things I’ve ever seen in my life,” he said in July.

The US Democrats who used to see Facebook’s severe measures against Trump as a great political safeguard must be watching the current development nervously. The conventional media are a powerful political tool, but they can pale beside the social media.

Trump can’t have both X and Facebook, can he?

When "treason" is exploited in democracy

December 4, 2024: South Korea’s president has virtually accused the main opposition party of treason, and vice versa. Outgoing US President Joe Biden has virtually accused president-elect Donald Trump of treason, and vice versa. The list of examples goes on and on.

“Treason” and “Democracy” should have existed in parallel universes. They have no business being together. Yet truth is that they co-exist perfectly in this world. Either you are democratic or authoritarian, “treason” always comes in handy, being an effective weapon to strike down a political enemy.

It’s puzzling and ironic. South Korea’s president Yoon Suk Yeol linked the opposition party to North Korea, meaning it’s a threat to his country’s democracy which he apparently tried to defend. Biden also linked Trump to Russia and accused the latter of doing several bad things against democracy. Therefore, Trump was a threat to democracy which Biden tried to defend.

Now, the very South Korean opposition party accused by the country’s president of treason is accusing him of the same crime, and seeking impeachment in the process. As for Trump, it has never been a secret what he thinks. The incoming world leader has always charged that Biden and Co are in fact an anti-democratic force in disguise who have been hiding behind democracy. It’s treason hands down, Trump said.

Who are right and who are wrong? Only one thing is clear: When “treason” is activated in a democracy, the latter can be badly tainted, if not destroyed completely.

South Korea is considered a model student when democracy is concerned. America (whose president pardoned his son just days ago) preaches democracy. Imagine what are going on in countries with smaller profiles.

Paetongtarn's "maturity" under spotlight

December 3, 2024: It’s one thing for ordinary citizens to jump into social media and pick a fight with critics, but it’s another for a prime minister to do so.

It’s controversial when a prime minister needs to consult a computer tablet for a piece of information or national stance that he or she should know by heart, but it’s way a lot more controversial if that device is used to monitor or respond to criticism.

It’s not what Paetongtarn Shinawatra says. It’s how she says it.

And how often she is saying it.

A public figure faces criticism all the time, and some of it could be wrong. But in an era where a million critics have a million tools to do their work at the same time, a leader has to let it go, otherwise there will be no time left for public service.

Flooding in the deep South is threatening to turn whispered criticism linked to Paetongtarn’s age and political maturity into big rumbles, with big-name commentators focusing on not only her involvement in state affairs, but also the glaring publicity of her family affairs (which she shows, rather proudly) as well as how she deals with criticism.

The “Action speaks louder than words” advice can’t be any more useful in this new age when leadership is concerned.

The “Wow. Thailand has such a young leader” foreign exclamation cuts both ways. It’s a compliment as long the performance is good. When the performance is bad, it’s the opposite of admiration.

Biden pardoning his son never big surprise

December 2, 2024:Don’t let anyone say otherwise. US President Joe Biden did what he had been expected to do.

The presidential pardon of Hunter Biden, his convicted son, has come despite repeated White House claims that the outgoing American leader would never do it, but who were they kidding?

History shows the president would have been too good to be true if he had not taken the action. According to CNN, this is just the latest instance of an outgoing president using the pardon power to help a family member. Shortly before they both left office, Bill Clinton pardoned his brother and Donald Trump pardoned the father of his son-in-law, the network pointed out.

With Trump being poised to retake the White House increasing the Democrats’ fears of “revenge”, and Hunter Biden facing sentencing after being found guilty of lying in his gun application form, it had better be safe than sorry.

Prison time had always been a very long shot because Hunter Biden was a first-time offender, but it was a fascinating case anyway. He’s the president’s son and Trump often cried foul over the White House’s “weaponisation of justice”, so whatever happens to Hunter Biden speaks volumes of the directions of the related political course.

Meanwhile, the chaos continues over celebrities and US politics with big star George Clooney reportedly resenting an alleged Barack Obama attempt to cut him loose.

A western news host claims Clooney is reportedly “furious” Obama, one of the most influential Democrats, used him to force President Biden out of the US election race but every key Democrat politician is staying away from the humiliating defeat of the replacement candidate, Kamala Harris, leaving the actor to be the fall guy.

“Clooney’s newspaper article, calling for Biden to stand aside for Kamala Harris, was widely credited for changing the course of the election,” the man told Australia’s Sky News. “Clooney is now complaining that Obama who sort of manipulated him into doing the dirty work on his behalf has left him to take most of the blame for (Harris’) election loss.”

The Clooney controversy aside, the apparently-excessive use of celebrities to influence public opinion in Harris’ favour is mind-boggling, simply because the so-called “celebrity overload” tactic was employed by a political side that seems to cherish equality and real power of the real people.

People’s Party in flood showdown with PM

December 1, 2024: Both the biggest opposition party and Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra have their good points when it comes to the flood crisis in the deep South.

Action speaks louder than words, and the prime minister’s use of the biological origin of her husband to dismiss criticism that she does not care about flood-hit southerners is ridiculous, the People’s Party said.

The party’s deputy spokesperson, Pukkamon Nunarnan, said in a Facebook post that when it comes to fellow citizens, a leader’s love and care are felt through how he or she responds to their crises. The flood calamity, Pukkamon said, should have been dealt with through emergency action directed closely by the prime minister.

“We haven’t seen the setting up of a national-level crisis management coordination centre supervised by the prime minister, despite the severity and expanding scale of the problem,” she said.

“It’s a systematic and efficient relief effort that is a proof of love and care, not the saying that I’m married to a southerner. Every Thai knows how lovely the prime minister’s family is, but that fact should be kept at home because it’s not what Thais want to see.”

Pukkamon was making a great point, but so was Paetongtarn when responding to criticism about her presence or lack thereof when suffering southerners are concerned. In countering criticism, the prime minister did highlight the fact that her husband is a southerner, but she also said she did not pay an immediate visit to the crisis region because she did not want to disrupt urgent relief works of the authorities who must focus totally on helping the people.

“Whenever or wherever I go, officials working in the region will more or less have to get involved in receptions,” Paetongtarn said. “That’s why I have had to wait and see when is the best time to visit.”

Politicians going to disaster-hit areas causes the exact problem that Paetongtarn was talking about. Parts of the relief apparatus needs to be spared for receptions, some of them and accompanying distractions always going overboard resulting in substantial disruptions of emergency work.

Some will argue that moderate or low-key visits help boost morale, showing sufferers that they are not fighting alone. Also, a leader can always give instructions regarding receptions. This does not mean, though, that such instructions will always be obeyed, knowing the Thai bureaucracy.

Criticism against Paetongtarn somehow brought back her father’s controversial statement, made when he was prime minister some two decades ago, that people supporting his party would always be on his mind while he prioritised matters. The South had never been his party’s stronghold.

Meanwhile, a TV news coverage of the flood crisis quoted a villager as saying that people losing their furniture, cars or other belongings should get cash relief in the same quick and generous manner as how “digital money” is being distributed.

Daily updates of local and international events by Tulsathit Taptim