Potential knock-out blows in censure debate against Prime Minister Paetongtarn

Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra is the only target of the two-day censure debate starting on Monday (March 24). However, opposition MPs are also expected to scrutinise her father, former PM Thaksin – although they are banned from referring to him directly.

House Speaker Wan Muhamad Noor Matha has barred MPs from mentioning Thaksin’s name in the debate, permitting them only to use the term “family members of the prime minister”.

However, observers reckon this could spell trouble for Paetongtarn, potentially exposing the extent of her father’s alleged influence over her government despite holding no official role.

The censure debate will be held on Monday and Tuesday, with the post-debate vote on Wednesday. Parliament whips have allocated 28 hours for opposition MPs and seven hours for the coalition.

‘Family before the country’

The People’s Party-led opposition has outlined six accusations against PM Paetongtarn in its censure motion:

• Lacking qualifications and suitability to hold the premiership

• Disengaging from the country’s problems and behaving irresponsibly

• Failing to show evident honesty and integrity

• Undermining the rule of law and the parliamentary system

• Condoning corruption and conflicts of interest in her administration

• Allowing her father to guide and manipulate important national matters while behaving as his puppet prime minister

Opposition leader Natthaphong Ruengpanyawut highlighted a popular belief that Thaksin is the “real prime minister”.

He alleged that Thailand’s current political situation stems from a secret deal with powers-that-be to bring Thaksin home without having to serve jail time. This, he argued, had benefited the Shinawatra family at the nation’s expense.

Natthaphong, leader of the People’s Party, claimed the conspiracy had stalled key Pheu Thai Party campaign promises, including rewriting the current junta-era Constitution.

Need for a knock-out blow

Olarn Thinbangtieo, a political science lecturer at Burapha University, believes the People’s Party is aiming for a knock-out blow to oust the government.

He highlighted the opposition party’s need to impress voters in what could be the final censure debate for 44 of its MPs, who face potential lifetime political bans after being indicted by the National Anti-Corruption Commission (NACC) on charges of breaching ethical standards by sponsoring a 2021 motion to amend the lese majeste law.

“We can expect these MPs to make serious allegations during the censure debate to prove their worth as opposition lawmakers,” Olarn said.

He also predicted that People’s Party MPs would fiercely attack Paetongtarn to quell suspicions of a “secret deal” between the PM’s father and Thanathorn Juangroongruangkit, who founded the party’s original incarnation, Future Forward, and is thought to have retained strong influence over successive “Orange parties”.

Olarn said the House speaker had inadvertently put the government at a disadvantage by banning mention of Thaksin while allowing opposition MPs to refer to “the prime minister’s family members”.

This has opened the door for allegations that other members of the PM’s family – including her aunt, former premier Yingluck Shinawatra, and her mother, Thaksin’s ex-wife Potjaman Na Pombejra – also held secret influence over the government.

Secret may be exposed

However, most political observers predict that the ruling coalition will once again survive the no-confidence vote, pointing to its parliamentary majority.

Olarn agreed this was the most likely outcome if the opposition failed to present serious allegations backed by incriminating evidence. He expects Paetongtarn to weather the censure storm as opposition MPs bombard her with claims of alleged privileges enjoyed by Thaksin but fail to come up with proof.

Thaksin returned to Thailand after 15 years in self-exile to face an eight-year jail term for abuse of power in 2023. However, after a six-month stay in the Police General Hospital and a royal pardon that reduced his sentence to one year, he was paroled in February last year without having spent a single night in jail.

But Olarn said the government could still be upturned if the opposition exposes an unreported conflict-of-interest scandal involving a Cabinet member or their family member.

The analyst also suggested that General Prawit Wongsuwan, leader of the opposition Palang Pracharath Party, could make allegations against Thaksin that are damaging enough to bring down the government.

“I believe the People’s Party and Prawit could have a ‘knock-out punch’. Prawit himself is both an opposition MP and an enemy of Thaksin. If he had nothing to explain [to the public], he would have retired from politics already,” he said.

General Prawit, a leading figure in the junta formed after the 2014 military coup, is not known as an eloquent speaker. However, he recently confirmed that he would take part in the grilling of PM Paetongtarn.

Observers expect him to reveal damaging secrets from his bittersweet association with Thaksin, which dates back to the latter’s tenure as prime minister in the early 2000s.

However, the secretary general of his party, Paiboon Nititawan, said Prawit would only be making general allegations without digging into details.

Prawit came third in a recent poll asking the public who they most wanted to hear speak during the censure debate. Paetongtarn was the top choice with 42%, followed by Natthaphong (34%) and Prawit (12%), according to the Nida Poll conducted on March 11-13.

In 2022, then deputy PM Prawit famously dismissed attacks by opposition MPs during a censure debate with a simple sentence: their allegations against him were untrue.

Paetongtarn vs Natthaphong

This will mark the first time that Paetongtarn, 38, and Natthaphong, 37, face off as the main protagonists in a censure debate.

Both are representatives of Thailand’s Generation Y – those born between 1981 and 1996.

Before entering politics in 2022, Paetongtarn had no experience in public administration, government policymaking, or even Parliament.

Her rapid rise to become Pheu Thai leader in October 2023 and then prime minister in August 2024 is generally attributed to her father’s influence and connections.

The House of Representatives voted her in as the country’s 31st prime minister on August 16 last year, just two days after her predecessor Srettha Thavisin was removed from office by a Constitutional Court order.

As the sole candidate for the position, she gained support from 319 MPs – comfortably surpassing the simple majority of 248 required to secure the top post.

Natthaphong has more political experience than Paetongtarn, having participated in previous censure debates as an MP of the now-defunct Move Forward Party.

Initially a tech expert and business executive, he joined the newly formed Future Forward in 2018, which was disbanded by court order in 2020, before being reborn as Move Forward.

Shortly after the Constitutional Court dissolved Move Forward in August last year, Natthaphong unexpectedly emerged as the leader of its successor, the People’s Party. Analysts said he won the post thanks to his close ties with Thanathorn.

At Future Forward, Thanathorn entrusted the tech expert with overseeing the new party’s digital platform – a job he kept after Future Forward reincarnated as Move Forward.

At Move Forward, Natthaphong served as deputy secretary-general in charge of data systems and digital development. He oversaw IT projects for both parties, including the development of online fundraising hailed as a huge success.