分析：中國力圖在承載全球80%貿易的產業取得高科技優勢

喬・卡什與約翰・蓋迪報導By Joe Cash and John Geddie

北京／東京，11月10日（路透社）——各國領袖下週飛抵中國深圳時，或許會一窺中國對全球貿易未來的願景：一座以新一代硬體與軟體高效運轉的高科技港口。BEIJING/TOKYO, Nov 10 (Reuters) - When world leaders fly into the Chinese city of Shenzhen next week, they may catch a glimpse of China's vision for the future of global trade: a high-tech port humming with next-generation hardware and software.

媽灣碼頭配備無人駕駛卡車、遠端操控起重機和人工智慧系統，是中國數十個自動化港口作業之一。北京希望，這些設施能讓中國在一個按貨量計承載全球逾80%商品貿易的產業取得優勢。The Mawan Terminal — complete with its driverless trucks, remote-controlled cranes and AI-powered systems — is among dozens of automated port operations across China that Beijing hopes will give it an edge in an industry that moves more than 80% of goods traded worldwide by volume.

然而，西方官員與分析人士已對北京在全球港口持有大量股權抱持警戒，他們擔心，中國推動輸出航運技術，可能使其取得新的影響力。Western officials and analysts, however, already wary of Beijing's sizable stakes in ports around the world, fear its push to export its shipping technology could give it new leverage.

「這是一種非常令人不安的依賴，而且可能帶來重大戰略不利後果，」美國政府資助智庫國防分析研究所（Institute for Defense Analyses）的中國海事戰略專家艾薩克・卡登（Isaac Kardon）說。"It's a very uncomfortable dependence, and it's one that could have major strategic downsides," said Isaac Kardon, an expert on China's maritime strategy with the Institute for Defense Analyses, a US government-funded think tank.

卡登表示，這些不利後果包括北京在新興技術中取得壟斷地位，可能用於經濟脅迫；也包括利用後門監控競爭對手，或在危機中癱瘓貿易網絡。Those downsides range from Beijing gaining monopolistic positions in emerging technologies that could be used for economic coercion to exploiting back doors to spy on rivals or cripple trade networks in a crisis, Kardon said.

中國的推進並非一帆風順。路透社上月揭露，由中國支持的航運數據平台LOGINK已悄然崩解；華府部分人士曾擔心，該平台可能成為一種貿易超級武器。China's advance has not been smooth sailing. Reuters last month revealed the quiet collapse of LOGINK, a China-backed shipping data platform that some in Washington feared could become a trade superweapon.

但在11月18日至19日深圳亞太經濟合作會議（APEC）峰會登場前，北京正釋出訊號，顯示其推動海運貿易現代化的雄心並未減弱。But ahead of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit in Shenzhen on November 18-19, Beijing is signalling that its ambitions to modernise maritime trade remain undimmed.

在籌備會議期間，中國提議主導多個工作小組，議題包括電子提單，以及由人工智慧和大數據驅動的海關資料庫。電子提單是傳統上作為海運貨物收據文件的數位版本。During preparatory meetings, China has proposed leading working groups on electronic bills of lading, digital versions of documents traditionally used as receipts for seaborne cargo, and on customs databases powered by AI and big data.

中國交通運輸部5月在其網站刊出的社論中表示：「誰先完成數位化轉型，誰就能在下一輪全球港口與航運競爭中取得主動權。」"Whoever completes the digital transformation first will gain the upper hand in the next round of global port and shipping competition," China’s transport ministry said in a May editorial published on its website.

北京將推動智慧港口描述為各國促進貿易的一種方式。中國交通運輸部未回應路透社就本文提出的採訪請求。Beijing has cast its smart-port push as a way for countries to boost trade. China's transport ministry did not respond to a request for comment for this story.

領先優勢LEADING EDGE

在港口自動化方面，中國稱自己已經領先。When it comes to automating ports, China says it's already ahead.

根據中國交通運輸部，中國有60座自動化碼頭，數量超過其他任何國家。It is home to 60 automated terminals, more than any other country, according to its transport ministry.

其中最耀眼的是位於東部城市青島的新前灣貨櫃碼頭，中國交通運輸部稱其為全球第一座全自動化碼頭。中國目標是在2030年前擁有90座自動化碼頭。The jewel in the crown is the New Qianwan Container Terminal in the eastern city of Qingdao, which the ministry describes as the world's first fully automated terminal. China aims to have 90 automated terminals by 2030.

這項技術已在加速中國商品流向全球市場。前灣方面表示，每台起重機每小時可處理61個貨櫃，是傳統碼頭效率的兩倍多。The technology is already accelerating the flow of Chinese goods to global markets. Qianwan says each crane can handle 61 containers an hour, more than double the rate at conventional docks.

相較之下，美國港口自動化進展緩慢，部分原因是勞工工會擔心就業流失而反對。美國政府問責署2024年提交國會的一份報告發現，美國10大港口的自動化程度低於海外同業。The United States, by comparison, has been slow to automate in ports, partly due to opposition from labour unions worried about job losses. A 2024 Government Accountability Office report to Congress found that the 10 biggest US ports were less automated than their foreign peers.

布魯金斯研究所（Brookings Institution）中國科技研究員凱爾・陳（Kyle Chan）表示：「中國自動化速度的一個關鍵變數，是缺乏獨立工會的反對；在美國等其他國家，這些工會可能拖慢或阻止某些類型的自動化。」“One key variable for China's speed of automation is the lack of pushback from independent unions who can slow or stop certain kinds of automation in other countries, like the US,” said Kyle Chan, a fellow in Chinese technology at the Brookings Institution think tank.

中國的高科技港口網絡，也為其企業可銷往海外的技術提供了龐大試驗場。China's network of high-tech ports also provides a vast testing ground for technologies its companies can sell abroad.

自動駕駛卡車製造商西井科技（Westwell）和電信設備巨頭華為等中國企業，正將智慧港口技術打包推向海外市場。西井科技的無人駕駛卡車目前已在英國最繁忙的貨櫃港菲力斯杜（Felixstowe）運行。Chinese firms such as self-driving truck maker Westwell and telecoms equipment giant Huawei are packaging smart-port technology for overseas markets. Westwell's driverless trucks now run at Felixstowe, Britain's busiest container port.

北京也正在借鑑「一帶一路」模式；該模式曾協助中國取得全球多地港口股權。北京以其宣稱能提升效率、並促進與全球第二大經濟體貿易的技術，向開發中國家示好。Beijing is also drawing on the Belt and Road model that helped it acquire stakes in ports around the world, courting developing countries with technology it says can boost efficiency and trade with the world's second-largest economy.

從機器嗅探犬到自動化掃描器，根據美國威廉與瑪麗大學（William & Mary）研究實驗室AidData於3月發布的報告，自2000年以來，中國已為47個國家的69座港口提供約48億美元港口設備融資。這還不包括北京用於建設海外港口或取得外國港口股權的155億美元支出。From robotic sniffer dogs to automated scanners, China has provided some $4.8 billion in financing for port equipment since 2000 at 69 ports in 47 countries, according to a March report by AidData, a research lab at William & Mary university in the US. That’s on top of the $15.5 billion Beijing has spent on building or acquiring stakes in foreign ports.

「供應鏈控制」'SUPPLY CHAIN CONTROL'

雖然中國的港口硬體已快速擴散，但LOGINK事件顯示，要說服各國採用中國軟體更為困難。While China's port hardware has proliferated, persuading countries to adopt its software has proved harder, as the LOGINK saga showed.

華府擔心這個外界所知不多的物流數據平台，可能協助北京追蹤武器等敏感貨物，並讓中國企業相較西方競爭對手取得優勢，因此向盟友和組織施壓，要求與該平台切斷關係。Fearing the obscure logistics data platform could help Beijing track sensitive cargo such as arms and give Chinese firms an edge over Western rivals, Washington pressured allies and organisations to cut ties with it.

產業研究顯示，中國在碼頭作業系統（TOS）市場的拓展也一直面臨困難；該市場長期由美國企業主導。這類軟體負責規劃並追蹤貨櫃碼頭各項作業，從卸貨、車輛調度到處理海關資訊。China has also struggled to make inroads in terminal operating systems (TOS), a market long dominated by US firms, according to industry studies. The software plans and tracks activity across a container terminal, from unloading cargo and moving vehicles to processing customs information.

中國交通運輸部5月表示，打破外國企業對這類軟體的「壟斷」，將紓解「中國港口產業最大的痛點」，並為碼頭節省數千萬美元。China's transport ministry said in May that breaking foreign firms' "monopoly" on such software would relieve “the greatest pain point for China’s port industry” and save terminals tens of millions of dollars.

有跡象顯示，中國正在取得進展。There are signs China is making progress.

由國家支持的港口營運商招商局港口在2025年一份文件中提到一項「交通運輸部重點項目」，目標是在國際港口「替換外國系統」。該公司表示，已在巴西帕拉納瓜港安裝其自主研發的碼頭作業系統，完成這項工作。招商局港口也已在斯里蘭卡、希臘、義大利和土耳其的碼頭部署其系統。該公司未回應路透社就本文提出的採訪請求。A 2025 filing by state-backed port operator China Merchants Port highlighted a “key transport ministry project” to “replace foreign systems” at international ports, which it said it had completed by installing its homegrown TOS at Brazil’s Paranagua port. China Merchants Port has also rolled out its system at terminals in Sri Lanka, Greece, Italy and Turkey. The firm did not respond to a request for comment for this story.

曾任世界經濟論壇供應鏈與運輸產業主管的顧問沃夫岡・萊馬赫（Wolfgang Lehmacher）表示，關鍵在於，中國願意打持久戰。Crucially, China is willing to play a long game, said Wolfgang Lehmacher, a consultant and former head of supply chain and transport industries at the World Economic Forum.

萊馬赫說：「他們在那裡投資，在這裡推動試點計畫；但他們擁有如此強大的火力，這些點會連成網格，網格會成為網絡，而網絡會成為中國的控制軌道——我指的是供應鏈控制。」"They make an investment there, they run a pilot project here, but they have such firepower that these dots become a mesh, and the mesh becomes the network, and the network becomes the Chinese orbit of control — and I speak of supply chain control," said Lehmacher.

（喬・卡什北京、約翰・蓋迪東京報導；索納利・保羅編輯）(Reporting by Joe Cash in Beijing and John Geddie in Tokyo; Editing by Sonali Paul)