「川普讓我們付出代價」：期中選舉失利後，MAGA自問是否已走到盡頭

內德・帕克、約翰・希夫曼、麥克・斯佩克特、彼得・艾斯勒與蘇琳達報導By Ned Parker, John Shiffman, Mike Spector, Peter Eisler and Linda So

達拉斯，11月8日（路透社）——共和黨在週二期中選舉中面臨全國性慘敗之際，支持者陸續走出達拉斯一間宴會廳；他們原本希望在那裡為美國總統唐納・川普青睞的聯邦參議員候選人肯・帕克斯頓慶祝勝選。DALLAS, Nov 8 (Reuters) - As Republicans faced a nationwide drubbing in Tuesday’s midterm elections, supporters streamed out of a Dallas ballroom where they’d hoped to toast a win for US Senate candidate Ken Paxton, a favorite of President Donald Trump.

在飯店酒吧裡，59歲商人麥可・利特爾凝視著電視螢幕上的總統影像。他曾3度投票給川普。他說：「人們對川普很火大。川普讓我們付出代價。」這番話反映出共和黨遭遇數十年來最嚴重選舉挫敗後，總統「讓美國再次偉大」運動內部正在蔓延的情緒。In the hotel bar, Michael Little, a 59-year-old businessman and three-time Trump voter, stared at the president’s image on a television screen. “People are pissed off at Trump. Trump has cost us,” he said, capturing a sentiment rippling through the president’s Make America Great Again movement after the Republican Party’s worst electoral defeat in decades.

在這個聯盟各方之中，一些曾把川普視為MAGA最大資產的支持者，開始質疑他是否已成為最大的負擔。Across the coalition, some supporters who once viewed Trump as MAGA’s greatest asset are beginning to question whether he’s become its biggest liability.

這場期中選舉失利不只是對川普的否定，也是對他所建立的政治與文化運動的一場公投。這股美國政治中的決定性力量，始於川普2016年總統競選期間的一句競選口號；如今，在選民因燃油價格飆漲、伊朗戰爭與華府腐敗而感到失望，並把國會決定性多數交給民主黨之後，這場運動面臨可能攸關存亡的盤整。The midterm losses amounted to more than a repudiation of Trump. They were a referendum on the political and cultural movement he built. A defining force in American politics that began as a campaign slogan during Trump’s 2016 presidential run now faces a potentially existential reckoning after voters disillusioned with soaring fuel prices, the Iran war and Washington corruption delivered Democrats decisive congressional majorities.

川普對期中選舉的第一個重大回應出現在週五。他沒有改弦易轍，反而加碼押注這場運動的核心。他提拔政府強硬移民打壓行動的主要設計者史蒂芬・米勒出任白宮幕僚長，接替蘇西・威爾斯。威爾斯被視為這個經常陷入混亂的白宮內部一股穩定力量。Trump’s first major response to the midterms came on Friday. Instead of changing course, he doubled down on the movement’s core. He promoted Stephen Miller, the main architect of the administration’s hardline immigration crackdown, to chief of staff, replacing Susie Wiles. Wiles was seen as a stabilizing force inside an often chaotic White House.

此舉受到MAGA一些最熱切網紅的讚揚；他們認為這是回歸這場運動根源中的反移民議程。右翼網紅班尼・強森在X上向他的410萬名追蹤者發文說：「這正是我們需要的能量。紮實的一步。米勒時間到了。」The move was celebrated by some of MAGA’s most ardent influencers, who saw it as a return to the anti-immigration agenda at the movement’s roots. “Exactly the energy we need,” right-wing influencer Benny Johnson posted on X to his 4.1 million followers. “Solid move. It’s Miller Time.”

白宮並未直接回答路透社有關共和黨為何敗選、支持川普2020年選舉不實說法的候選人落敗，以及MAGA未來何去何從等問題，而是指向川普週三的談話；他當時說：「如果我在選票上，我們就會贏。」他也說，伊朗戰爭讓共和黨付出代價的說法「大致屬實」，因為「那推高了汽油價格」，但他還是會再做一次。The White House did not directly answer Reuters' questions about why Republicans lost, the defeat of candidates who embraced Trump's false 2020 election claims, or where MAGA goes from here. Instead, it pointed to Trump's remarks on Wednesday, when he said, "If I were on the ballot, we would have won." He also said it was "largely true" that the Iran war had cost Republicans because "it drove the gasoline up," but that he’d do it again.

近10年來，MAGA重塑了共和黨，也改變了貿易、移民、種族與性別等議題的全國辯論。這場運動把效忠者安插進聯邦機構各處，打壓移民，並施壓企業與公家機關退出多元、公平與共融倡議。MAGA挺過了2021年1月6日美國國會大廈遇襲後的衝擊，並推動川普重返白宮。在川普第二任期，MAGA不再只是共和黨內一個派系；它就是共和黨。For nearly a decade, MAGA has reshaped the Republican Party and transformed national debates on issues such as trade, immigration, race and gender. The movement installed loyalists throughout federal agencies, cracked down on immigration and pressured corporations and public institutions to retreat from diversity, equity and inclusion initiatives. MAGA survived the fallout from the January 6, 2021, attack on the US Capitol and propelled Trump back to the White House. In Trump’s second term, MAGA was no longer a faction of the Republican Party; it was the party.

如今，民主黨大勝迫使這場運動面對一個意想不到的問題：MAGA結束了嗎？Now, the Democrats’ sweeping victory has forced the movement to grapple with an unexpected question: Is MAGA over?

路透社訪問了十多名MAGA活動人士、網紅、政黨策略人士、基督教民族主義領袖，以及追蹤右翼政治的研究人員，並檢視MAGA支持者自週二以來的貼文與播客內容。結果顯示，這場運動正把怒火轉向自身。Reuters interviews with more than a dozen MAGA activists, influencers, party strategists, Christian nationalist leaders and researchers who track right-wing politics, along with a review of MAGA supporters' posts and podcasts since Tuesday, show a movement turning its anger on itself.

自民主黨籍拜登在2020年總統大選擊敗川普以來，推動MAGA的選舉遭竊說法大多已沉寂。取而代之的是，支持者把生活成本、伊朗戰爭，以及政府決定塗黑或扣留已故性犯罪者傑佛瑞・艾普斯坦調查檔案中大部分重要內容等未兌現承諾，歸咎於共和黨領袖、川普顧問，在某些情況下也歸咎於總統本人。The stolen-election claims that have driven MAGA since Democrat Joe Biden beat Trump in the 2020 presidential election have mostly gone quiet. Instead, supporters are blaming Republican leaders and Trump's advisers, and in some cases the president himself, for broken promises on living costs, the Iran war and the government’s decision to redact or withhold major portions of its investigative files on late sex offender Jeffrey Epstein.

MAGA各派也不同意接下來該怎麼走。有人希望回歸民粹主義與民族主義基本路線；有人希望這場運動不要那麼綁定在一個人身上；也有一小群聲量很大的少數派說，MAGA已經死了。MAGA’s factions also disagree about what comes next. Some want a return to populist and nationalist basics. Some want a movement less tied to one man. And a vocal minority say MAGA is already dead.

「我們必須重建，」MAGA重要倡議者、播客主持人、前川普白宮顧問史蒂夫・班農告訴路透社。他敦促共和黨加倍投入一套積極的民粹主義與民族主義議程，並讚揚川普提拔米勒。他說：「米勒被任命為幕僚長，支撐了我的論點。沒有比史蒂芬更鐵桿的MAGA支持者了。」“We have to rebuild,” Steve Bannon, a prominent MAGA proponent, podcaster and former Trump White House adviser, told Reuters. He urged the party to double down on an aggressive populist and nationalist agenda and praised Trump for elevating Miller. “Miller's appointment as chief of staff underpins my point,” he said. “There is no more hardcore MAGA proponent than Stephen.”

在親川普網路論壇消化選舉結果之際，根據資料情報公司PeakMetrics為路透社所做的社群媒體流量分析，相當一部分自稱MAGA忠誠支持者的人——超過20%——對這場運動的領導與方向提出疑問。這群人約有一半仍支持MAGA運動，但不再支持川普擔任其領袖；另一半仍效忠總統本人，但對他有所批評。As pro-Trump internet forums digested the election results, a notable slice of self-described MAGA loyalists – more than 20% – raised doubts about the movement’s leadership and direction, according to an analysis of social media traffic done for Reuters by PeakMetrics, a data intelligence firm. About half of that cohort remained supportive of the MAGA movement but no longer backed Trump as its leader. The other half remained loyal to, though critical of, the president himself.

這項分析以選舉日晚上9時至隔日晚間8時之間，X與Reddit上460萬則川普相關留言為母體，抽樣12,850則貼文。分析發現，隨著結果逐漸明朗，MAGA支持者普遍感到憂心。在歸咎敗選原因的貼文中，近三分之一表示，對伊朗戰爭與以色列對美國政策影響力的擔憂，蓋過了川普的訊息；四分之一表示，未完全投入MAGA議程的共和黨人削弱了這場運動。The analysis was based on 12,850 posts sampled from a universe of 4.6 million Trump-related comments on X and Reddit from 9 p.m. on Election Day to 8 p.m. the next evening. It found broad concern among MAGA supporters as the results became clear. Of the posts that assigned blame for the rout, nearly a third said concerns about the Iran war and Israel’s influence over US policy had overshadowed Trump’s message. A quarter said Republicans not fully committed to the MAGA agenda had undermined the movement.

選舉結果使川普將面對民主黨在國會兩院的龐大多數。民主黨可能在100席參議院中掌握多達56席，遠超足以阻擋他的司法提名人選。他們也將掌握川普2024年勝出的7個搖擺州州長職位，並橫掃德州所有全州性選舉；德州上一次在總統大選支持民主黨人是在1976年。The results left Trump facing large Democratic majorities in both chambers of Congress. Democrats could hold as many as 56 of the Senate's 100 seats, more than enough to block his judicial nominees. They will also hold governorships in all seven battleground states Trump won in 2024, and they swept every statewide race in Texas, which last backed a Democrat for president in 1976.

一些長期忌憚MAGA基本盤會懲罰異議的共和黨重要人物，已開始公開批評川普。Some prominent Republicans, long wary of a MAGA base that punished dissent, have begun openly criticizing Trump.

威斯康辛州共和黨籍聯邦參議員羅恩・強森週六表示，「政府各部門」都存在腐敗，包括「我很難過地說，也在川普政府內部」。他提到前白宮顧問卡利・米恩斯；米恩斯週五在《喬・羅根體驗》播客上表示，川普的高階幕僚迎合特殊利益，並阻擋受到川普「讓美國再次健康」運動歡迎的政策。強森告訴福斯新聞，選民「原本期待我們排乾沼澤，但看起來沼澤贏了」。Republican US Senator Ron Johnson of Wisconsin said on Saturday that corruption was present in “all branches of government,” including “I’m sad to say, within the Trump administration.” He cited Calley Means, a former White House adviser who told "The Joe Rogan Experience" podcast on Friday that Trump's top aides catered to special interests and blocked policies popular with Trump’s Make America Healthy Again movement. Voters "were expecting us to drain the swamp, but it seems like the swamp won," Johnson told Fox News.

被問及強森的談話與米恩斯的指控時，白宮發言人艾莉森・舒斯特沒有回應腐敗指控，僅表示川普在「讓美國再次健康」方面「取得驚人進展」。Asked about Johnson's remarks and Means' accusations, White House spokesperson Allison Schuster did not address the corruption allegations, saying Trump had "made incredible strides to Make America Healthy Again."

週日，儘管所屬政黨失利仍成功連任的印第安納州共和黨籍聯邦眾議員馬林・斯塔茲曼，稱川普提拔米勒是「糟糕的錯誤」。斯塔茲曼告訴CNN：「你不會提拔那些原本負責的人。」他談到米勒時說：「中西部這裡的人不喜歡他。他們不喜歡他的語氣。」On Sunday, Republican US Representative Marlin Stutzman of Indiana, who won reelection despite his party's losses, called Trump’s promotion of Miller a “bad mistake.” “You don’t promote those who were in charge,” Stutzman told CNN. “He’s not liked out here in the Midwest by people. They don’t like his tone,” he said of Miller.

白宮發言人蘿倫・畢斯表示，米勒「從第一天起」就是推動川普議程落實的「關鍵人物」，並將以幕僚長身分「持續締造歷史性成功」。白宮也指向19名共和黨國會議員支持米勒升任的聲明。White House spokesperson Lauren Bis said Miller had "been a key player” in delivering on Trump's agenda “since day one" and would "continue to deliver historic successes" as chief of staff. The White House also pointed to statements from 19 Republican lawmakers supporting Miller’s promotion.

期中選舉失利讓MAGA最響亮的口號之一消了音：自週二以來，右翼網紅之間關於選舉舞弊的談論幾乎已經消失。The midterm losses have muffled one of MAGA's loudest refrains: Since Tuesday, talk of election fraud has virtually vanished among right-wing influencers.

「自2020年以來，我一直大聲疾呼選舉被操弄、被竊取，但那不是我們輸掉期中選舉的原因，」以DC_Draino之名發文的MAGA網紅羅根・歐漢德利在X上向他的230萬名追蹤者寫道。「我們輸了，是因為我們沒能修好選民要我們去修的事。」他未回應採訪請求。“I have been banging the drum of rigged and stolen elections since 2020, but that is not why we lost the midterms,” Rogan O’Handley, a MAGA influencer who posts under the name DC_Draino, wrote on X to his 2.3 million followers. “We lost because we failed to fix the things voters sent us to do.” He didn’t respond to a request for comment.

2020年大選後，川普支持者伊莎貝拉・德盧卡是2021年1月6日衝進美國國會大廈的數千人之一。她被控5項罪名，包括從國會大廈內竊取一張桌子，並表示不認罪。川普重返執政並赦免她後，她的案件遭撤銷。After the 2020 election, Trump supporter Isabella DeLuca was among thousands who stormed the US Capitol on January 6, 2021. She was charged with five crimes, including theft of a table from inside the Capitol, and pleaded not guilty. Her case was dismissed after Trump returned to office and pardoned her.

這一次，這名26歲保守派網紅把怒火指向她所稱脫離現實的共和黨領袖，認為他們未能在可負擔性、避免對外戰爭及其他關鍵議題上吸引Z世代選民。This time, the 26-year-old conservative influencer directed her anger toward what she described as out-of-touch Republican leaders who failed to appeal to Gen Z voters on affordability, avoiding foreign wars and other key issues.

德盧卡告訴路透社：「共和黨人就是懶。他們覺得自己理所當然能得到人們的選票，也覺得無論如何人們都會投給他們。這顯示你確實必須贏得人們的選票，即使在德州這樣的深紅州，你也不是無敵的。」“Republicans were just lazy. They felt like that they were entitled to people's votes and that people would vote for them no matter what,” DeLuca told Reuters. “It goes to show you that you do have to earn people's votes, and that even in a super red state like Texas, you're not untouchable.”

她說，今年的MAGA運動看起來「累了」。The MAGA movement this year appeared "tired," she said.

馬里蘭大學教授珍妮佛・戈爾貝克說，這種情緒也在網路右翼論壇中迴響。她自2016年以來一直分析MAGA相關貼文。她表示，川普最忠實支持者的參與度自1月以來穩定下滑，包括熱門MAGA論壇Patriots.Win上的貼文與留言減少27%。That sentiment was echoed in online right-wing forums, said Jennifer Golbeck, a University of Maryland professor who has analyzed MAGA-related posts since 2016. She said engagement by Trump’s most loyal backers has steadily declined since January, including a 27% drop in posts and comments on Patriots.Win, a popular MAGA forum.

戈爾貝克說：「即使在這群最核心的支持者之間，那種熱情與激情也不太在了。他們在說，『MAGA已經失去新鮮感。』它不像過去那樣新鮮、令人興奮。」”The enthusiasm and the passion even among this hardest core group of supporters hasn't really been there," Golbeck said. "They are saying that ‘MAGA is stale.’ It’s not new and exciting like it once was.”

長期以來一直是MAGA聲音關鍵平台的有線電視頻道福斯新聞，在期中選舉前收視率大幅下滑；根據收視調查公司尼爾森資料，其10月日間總觀眾人數較一年前下降27%。福斯在給路透社的一份聲明中表示，選舉夜其觀眾人數高於有線新聞競爭對手。該台表示：「福斯新聞25年來一直是有線新聞第一名的電視網。」Fox News, a cable network that has long been a key platform for MAGA voices, saw a sharp decline in viewership ahead of the midterms, with its total daytime audience down 27% in October from a year earlier, according to Nielsen, the audience measurement firm. In a statement to Reuters, Fox said it drew more viewers than its cable-news rivals on election night. “FOX News has been the number one network in cable news for a quarter century,” the network said.

一些知名右翼網紅把責任歸咎於總統顧問或共和黨國會議員，但很少怪罪川普本人。在貼文、網路直播與路透社訪談中，許多人把原因歸於對經濟的不滿，不過他們對週二選舉結果的其他原因看法不同。Some prominent right-wing influencers blamed the president’s advisers or Republican lawmakers – but rarely Trump himself – for ignoring key voter concerns. In posts, online broadcasts and interviews with Reuters, many blamed dissatisfaction with the economy, though they differed on other reasons for Tuesday's results.

保守派網站Daily Wire共同創辦人班・夏皮羅週三在他的網路節目上說，「擊潰」共和黨的不只是未能處理可負擔性問題。「如果你談的是一場選舉災難——像我們昨晚看到的那種全面潰敗——你需要更多要素。其他要素是：混亂與腐敗。」It wasn't just failure to address affordability that "crushed" Republicans, said Ben Shapiro, co-founder of the conservative site Daily Wire, on his online show on Wednesday. “If you’re talking about an electoral catastrophe – a wipeout like we saw last night – you need more ingredients. Here are the other ingredients: chaos and corruption.”

與川普關係密切的網紅蘿拉・盧默在X上寫道：「美國完了，美國夢死了。」不過她告訴路透社，這些失利並不代表MAGA的終結；她主張，任何尋求2028年共和黨總統提名的人，都會需要川普的基本盤。Laura Loomer, an influencer close to Trump, wrote on X: “America is over and the American Dream is dead.” Yet she told Reuters the losses did not signal the end of MAGA, arguing that anyone seeking the 2028 Republican presidential nomination would need Trump’s base.

盧默說：「共和黨屬於川普總統。MAGA運動仍是共和黨基本盤的多數，任何想在2028年以共和黨身分競選總統的人，如果輕視川普總統，都是不明智的。」“The Republican Party belongs to President Trump,” Loomer said. “The MAGA movement is still the majority of the GOP base, and whoever wants to run for president in 2028 on the GOP ticket, they would be unwise to be dismissive of President Trump.”

週四，盧默宣布暫停她的播客，表示自己已經「精疲力竭太久」，需要專注於個人生活與即將到來的婚禮。她補充說，她將在1月回歸。On Thursday, Loomer put her podcast on hiatus, saying she had been "running on empty for too long" and needed to focus on her personal life and upcoming wedding. She’ll return in January, she added.

期中選舉也考驗了支撐MAGA凝聚的信念，其中一些正開始鬆動。The midterms also tested the beliefs that have held MAGA together, and some of them are giving way.

民主黨橫掃選舉，對否認選舉結果運動造成重大挫折；自川普2020年敗選以來，這一直是MAGA政治的核心支柱。支持他所稱大規模選民舞弊不實說法的候選人大敗，其中包括數名曾努力推翻2020年結果的人。根據追蹤此類候選人的非營利組織States United Action，明年否認選舉結果者掌握的國會與全州性職位將至少減少41個；在已判定結果、負責監督選舉的全州性職位競選中，他們已輸掉70%。川普沒有試圖挑戰選舉結果，而是把敗選歸咎於共和黨人。The Democratic sweep dealt a significant setback to the election denial movement, a central pillar of MAGA politics since Trump's 2020 defeat. Candidates who embraced his false claims of widespread voter fraud lost heavily, including several who had worked to overturn the 2020 result. Election deniers will hold at least 41 fewer congressional and statewide offices next year, and they have lost 70% of the called races for statewide posts that oversee elections, according to States United Action, a nonprofit that tracks such candidates. Trump made no effort to contest the results and instead blamed Republicans for the defeat.

由於勢均力敵的選戰不多，也沒有可信的挑戰依據，許多知名親川普選舉懷疑論者放棄舞弊指控，並敦促支持者持續組織。少數盟友仍在沒有證據的情況下聲稱投票遭操弄。MyPillow創辦人、曾散播2020年投票機竄改選票不實說法的麥克・林德爾表示，他並不擔心川普承諾接受結果。林德爾告訴路透社：「那是他的看法。我有不同看法。我認為全都被偷走了。」With few close races and no credible basis for a challenge, many prominent pro-Trump election skeptics dropped fraud allegations and urged supporters to keep organizing. A handful of allies still alleged, without evidence, that the vote was rigged. Mike Lindell, the MyPillow founder and promoter of false claims that machines flipped votes in 2020, said he was not concerned by Trump's pledge to accept the results. “That's his opinion. I've got a different opinion,” Lindell told Reuters. “I think it's all been stolen.”

但即使在共和黨人之間，這類說法也大多停留在邊緣。若沒有爭議選戰，MAGA否認選舉結果運動可能失去支撐它的金錢、關注與動能。追蹤仇恨言論與極端主義的非營利組織「全球反仇恨與極端主義計畫」共同創辦人溫蒂・維亞說：「沒有人會把錢投到那後面。」But such claims stayed largely on the fringe, even among Republicans. Without contested races, the MAGA election denial movement risks losing the money, attention and momentum that sustained it. "Nobody's going to be putting money behind it," said Wendy Via, co-founder of the Global Project Against Hate and Extremism, a nonprofit that tracks hate speech and extremism.

退役中將麥克・佛林接受了敗選結果；他曾不實聲稱2020年選舉遭竊，也是MAGA運動中基督教民族主義派受歡迎的人物。他稱選舉結果是「一場屠殺」，並批評川普及其政府未能兌現多項承諾，從降低成本到公布政府對艾普斯坦的調查檔案。Retired Lieutenant General Mike Flynn, who falsely claimed the 2020 election was stolen and is a popular figure in the Christian nationalist wing of the MAGA movement, accepted the defeat. He called the results “a massacre” and criticized Trump and his administration for failing to deliver on pledges ranging from lowering costs to releasing the government’s investigative files on Epstein.

副總統JD・范斯在X上評估伊朗戰爭是「我們敗選的原因」後，佛林回應寫道：「大量承諾破滅，才是藍色海嘯發生的原因。」Responding to Vice President JD Vance’s assessment on X that the Iran war was “the reason we lost,” Flynn wrote: “the sheer number of broken promises is why the blue tsunami happened."

佛林也批評基督徒選民沒有出來投票。他寫道：「身為天主教徒與基督徒，我深感難堪與失望。」Flynn also criticized Christian voters for failing to show up. “As a Catholic and a Christian, I’m sorely embarrassed and disappointed,” he wrote.

其他知名基督教民族主義者則對MAGA能否在川普之後延續下去看法分歧。Other prominent Christian nationalists were divided over whether MAGA can outlast Trump.

曾受美國國防部長皮特・赫格塞斯邀請，於2月在五角大廈講道的基督教民族主義牧師道格拉斯・威爾森告訴路透社，MAGA「不會消失」，但必須降低個人色彩，並更聚焦於邊境管制、減稅與避免對外戰爭。Douglas Wilson, a Christian nationalist pastor who was invited by US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth to deliver a sermon at the Pentagon in February, told Reuters that MAGA “is not going anywhere” but must become less personality-driven and more focused on border control, tax cuts and avoiding foreign wars.

來自德州的極右翼基督教民族主義牧師喬爾・韋本則遠沒有那麼樂觀。他在X上的一段影片中說：「川普完全是自己輸掉這一切。」他主張，總統擁抱以色列、發動伊朗戰爭，且未能落實公布艾普斯坦檔案與大規模驅逐移民，等於拋棄了他的基本盤。Joel Webbon, a far-right Christian nationalist pastor from Texas, was far less sanguine. “Trump lost this all by himself,” he said in a video on X, arguing that the president abandoned his base by embracing Israel, launching the war in Iran and failing to follow through on releasing the Epstein files and mass deportations.

韋本在隨附貼文中寫道：「MAGA死了。永遠死了。」“MAGA is dead,” Webbon wrote in an accompanying post. “Forever.”

（傑森・塞普編輯）(Editing by Jason Szep)