從伊朗到貿易：美國期中選舉如何影響世界其他地區

倫敦11月4日（路透）—— 美國民主黨在期中選舉勝利形成的「藍色浪潮」，已在世界其他地區激起漣漪；貿易夥伴、戰略盟友與敵人都從這項結果看見其影響。LONDON, Nov 4 (Reuters) - The US Democrats' "blue wave" of midterm election victories is already causing ripples across the rest of the world, where trade partners, strategic allies and enemies all see implications in the result.

伊朗與以色列IRAN AND ISRAEL

美國總統川普失去對國會的控制權，將如何形塑美國與伊朗這場已持續8個月衝突的走向，目前尚不明朗。選民已顯示他們厭倦這場衝突；許多人認為，這場衝突是燃料價格痛苦上漲的原因。兩名熟悉波灣國家政府想法的消息人士告訴路透社，部分波灣國家政府現在認為，川普比以往更有理由尋求和平協議，而且期中選舉後，再次對伊朗發動全面攻擊的可能性降低。It is not immediately clear how US President Donald Trump's loss of control over Congress will shape the course of his country's eight-month-old conflict with Iran. Voters have shown they are weary of the conflict, which many blame for painfully higher fuel prices. Some Gulf governments now believe Trump has more reason than ever to seek a peace deal and that another full-scale assault on Iran is less likely after the midterms, two sources familiar with Gulf government thinking told Reuters.

但川普在選舉中慘敗，也可能壯大伊朗的氣勢。But Trump's electoral drubbing may also embolden Iran.

阿聯酋政策中心（Emirates Policy Center）的艾卜特薩姆・凱特比（Ebtesam al-Ketbi）說：「如果德黑蘭認知到，川普需要一項協議，但不是任何協議都可以，那麼結束戰爭的真正機會可能會出現。」不過她補充，若把這次投票結果解讀為軟弱，反而可能招致「新的軍事升級」。"If Tehran recognises that Trump needs a deal, but not just any deal, a genuine opportunity could emerge to end the war," said Ebtesam al-Ketbi of the Emirates Policy Center. However, reading the vote as weakness could instead invite "a new military escalation", she added.

對以色列而言，由民主黨掌控的眾議院與參議院，可能會加強國會對以色列在伊朗以及在加薩和黎巴嫩軍事行動的審查，同時威脅美國長期透過軍事援助與武器銷售支持以色列的立場。For Israel, a Democrat-controlled House and Senate may intensify congressional scrutiny of Israel's military operations in Iran as well as in Gaza and Lebanon, while threatening long-standing US support for Israel through military aid and weapons sales.

在上週以色列選舉結果未有定論後，尋求組成聯盟以取代總理納坦雅胡的競爭對手，抓住民主黨勝選一事抨擊他，稱在他的領導下，以色列失去了美國兩黨支持。Rivals seeking to unseat Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu seized on the Democrats' wins to lambaste him for a loss of bipartisan American support under his watch, as they seek to forge a coalition following an inconclusive Israeli election last week.

加油站油價FUEL PUMP PRICES

伊朗戰爭使來自波灣的原油與液化天然氣供應受阻，推高全球原油成本與加油站油價。The Iran war has choked supplies of crude oil and liquefied natural gas from the Gulf, driving up the cost of crude oil and prices at fuel pumps around the world.

能源市場週三押注，選舉結果可能為美伊和平談判注入更多動能。分析師表示，油價連續第3天下跌，但庫存緊俏限制了更大幅度的拋售。The energy market wagered on Wednesday that the elections could breathe more life into US-Iran peace talks. Oil dropped for a third day, but tight stock levels prevented a larger selloff, analysts said.

盛寶銀行（Saxo Bank）分析師歐爾・漢森（Ole Hansen）說：「市場似乎愈來愈押注，川普總統想把中東戰爭拋在身後。」"The market increasingly appears to be betting that President Trump wants to put the Middle East war behind him," said Saxo Bank analyst Ole Hansen.

烏克蘭UKRAINE

儘管民主黨與共和黨國會議員普遍支持，川普已大致停止在烏克蘭對抗俄羅斯入侵時，向烏克蘭提供直接的美國財政與軍事援助。他解除對俄羅斯柴油的制裁，並在簽署成法僅數週後豁免對俄羅斯能源的制裁，此舉激怒了國會議員，包括許多共和黨人。Trump has largely halted direct US financial and military aid to Ukraine as it fights a Russian invasion, despite broad support from Democratic and Republican lawmakers. He has angered members of Congress, including many Republicans, by lifting sanctions on Russian diesel and waiving sanctions on Russian energy only weeks after signing them into law.

掌控國會兩院將使民主黨能提出對烏克蘭的新援助案。如果他們獲得足夠共和黨人支持，取得3分之2多數，新援助方案將能挺過川普的否決。然而，美國援助即使增加，也不太可能很快到來，而且無法解決烏克蘭最迫切的需求——缺乏美製愛國者防空攔截飛彈，以在今年冬天保護其能源基礎設施與城市。Control of both chambers of Congress will allow Democrats to propose new aid to Ukraine. If they get enough backing from Republicans and secure a two-thirds majority, a new aid package would survive a Trump veto. However, any boost to US aid is unlikely to come quickly, and it will not address Ukraine’s most pressing need — a deficit of US-made Patriot air defence interceptors to protect its energy infrastructure and cities this winter.

民主黨人也可能鎖定川普的其他政策。Democrats could also target other Trump policies.

有望出任眾議院外交委員會主席的紐約州民主黨籍眾議員葛瑞格里・米克斯（Gregory Meeks），已提出跨黨派立法，阻止川普將俄羅斯柴油重新帶回全球市場的計畫。但期中選舉不太可能改變川普政府在與俄羅斯三方和平談判中的立場；在談判中，川普政府施壓烏克蘭作出讓步以達成協議，同時與莫斯科討論有利於美國投資人的商業協議。Democratic Representative Gregory Meeks of New York, a candidate to head the House Foreign Affairs Committee, has introduced bipartisan legislation to block Trump's plan to bring Russian diesel back into the global market. But the midterms are unlikely to change the Trump administration’s position in trilateral peace talks with Russia, where it has pressured Ukraine to make concessions to reach a deal while it simultaneously discusses business deals with Moscow that would favour US investors.

克里姆林宮表示，希望期中選舉結果不會影響其所稱川普的「和平斡旋努力」。The Kremlin said it hoped the midterm results would not impact what it called Trump's "peacemaking efforts".

貿易TRADE

分析師表示，選舉結果可能讓亞洲一些國家更有理由拖慢先前為避免關稅而作出的投資承諾，並讓經濟對手中國在進行中的貿易談判中被認為占上風。The elections could give some countries in Asia more reason to slow-walk investment pledges they made to stave off tariffs, and hand economic rival China a perceived upper hand in ongoing trade talks, analysts said.

不過，經濟學人智庫（Economist Intelligence Unit）駐北京產業政策分析師李智明（Chim Lee）表示，美中整體經濟關係可能會維持「脆弱穩定」狀態。However, broad US-China economic relations will likely maintain a state of "fragile stability", said Chim Lee, industrial policy analyst at the Economist Intelligence Unit in Beijing.

川普在期中選舉受挫，可能讓印度與美國的貿易協議談判鬆一口氣；由於新德里努力保護農民，這項談判一直面臨延宕。Trump’s midterm losses could spell relief for India’s negotiations for a trade deal with the United States, which has faced delays as New Delhi strives to protect its farmers.

印度聯邦政府前商務部次長阿努普・瓦達萬（Anup Wadhawan）說：「美國期中選舉失利後，唐納・川普總統任意加徵關稅的能力肯定會面臨挑戰。在某個時點，他需要國會批准貿易行動；就此而言，他被削弱了。」“After the US midterm losses, President Donald Trump’s capacity to impose arbitrary tariffs will certainly face a challenge. At some point he needs the Congress’s approval for trade actions and, to that extent, he’s weakened," said Anup Wadhawan, a former trade secretary to India's federal government.

國會有權規範商務並設定進口關稅，但川普利用法律，以國家安全或不公平貿易行為為由加徵關稅。民主黨限制這項權力的努力，可能會面臨總統否決。Congress has the right to regulate commerce and set import duties, but Trump has taken advantage of laws to impose tariffs on grounds of national security or unfair trade practices. Democratic Party efforts to limit that power would be likely to face a presidential veto.

另一個問題是，川普是否會落實更迫近的威脅，例如對向美國科技巨頭課徵數位服務稅的歐洲國家加徵100%關稅；又或者，歐洲投資銀行提供給空中巴士的30億歐元（33.7億美元）貸款，是否會破壞自2025年以來大致維持的跨大西洋貿易休兵。Another question is whether Trump will follow through on more immediate threats, such as a 100% tariff on European countries that impose a digital services tax on American tech giants, or whether a €3 billion ($3.37 billion) loan to Airbus from the European Investment Bank will undermine what has been largely a transatlantic trade truce since 2025.

AI與科技AI AND TECH

出口民調顯示，許多美國選民對AI資料中心的激進擴建感到擔憂。這讓亞洲主要晶片製造商股價受到衝擊。Exit polling revealed that many US voters were concerned about the aggressive buildout of AI data centres. That sent shivers through the shares of major Asian chip manufacturers.

奧克拉荷馬州Longbow Asset Management執行長傑克・多拉海德（Jake Dollarhide）說：「民主黨橫掃國會將對科技業造成壓力，並可能對所有AI相關事務帶來監管壓力，也可能放慢我們每天看到、且經常視為理所當然的那種狂野成長數字。」"A Democratic sweep of Congress would put pressure on tech and potentially bring regulatory pressure on everything AI and possibly slow down the wild, wild west growth figures that we see daily and often take for granted," said Jake Dollarhide, chief executive of Longbow Asset Management in Oklahoma.

台積電、三星電子、SK海力士和鎧俠等亞洲晶片與AI類股週三均下跌。Asian chip and AI stocks such as TSMC, Samsung Electronics, SK Hynix and Kioxia all fell on Wednesday.

亞洲投資人的疑慮也反映在美國市場盤前交易中，Applied Digital、TeraWulf、Core Scientific和Iren等美國資料中心營運商股價下跌。Asian investors' concerns were also reflected in pre-market trade in US markets where shares in US data centre operators fell, including Applied Digital, TeraWulf, Core Scientific and Iren.

（1美元 = 0.8905歐元）($1 = 0.8905 euros)

（杜拜Samia Nakhoul、基輔Dan Flynn、北京Mei Mei Chu、新德里Saurabh Sharma、布魯塞爾Philip Blenkinsop、新德里Shivangi Acharya、香港Jiaxing Li、倫敦Seher Dareen、舊金山Noel Randewich補充報導；Mark Bendeich撰稿；Aidan Lewis編輯）(Additional reporting by Samia Nakhoul in Dubai, Dan Flynn in Kyiv, Mei Mei Chu in Beijing, Saurabh Sharma in New Delhi, Philip Blenkinsop in Brussels, Shivangi Acharya in New Delhi, Jiaxing Li in Hong Kong, Seher Dareen in London, Noel Randewich in San Francisco; Writing by Mark Bendeich; Editing by Aidan Lewis)