解讀：菲律賓副總統莎拉・杜特蒂彈劾審判目前進展如何？

作者：凱倫・萊馬（Karen Lema）與內斯特・科拉雷斯（Nestor Corrales）By Karen Lema and Nestor Corrales

馬尼拉，11月9日（路透社）— 菲律賓副總統莎拉・杜特蒂（Sara Duterte）的律師已開始針對她被控累積來源不明財富進行辯護。這起彈劾審判進入關鍵階段，可能終結她在2028年成為總統的希望。MANILA, Nov 9 (Reuters) - Lawyers for Philippine Vice President Sara Duterte have started their defence against allegations she accumulated unexplained wealth, entering a crucial stage in an impeachment trial that could end her hopes of becoming president in 2028.

審判最新進展為何？WHAT'S THE LATEST IN THE TRIAL?

檢方上月撤回對杜特蒂的4項彈劾指控中的3項後，已結束舉證。杜特蒂是前總統羅德里戈・杜特蒂（Rodrigo Duterte）的女兒；檢方撤回多數指控，是為了聚焦於她的財富、商業利益與財產申報，試圖加快審判。Prosecutors rested their case last month after withdrawing three of the four impeachment charges against Duterte, the daughter of former President Rodrigo Duterte, to try to expedite the trial by focusing on her wealth and business interests and her asset declarations.

審判聽取了近4個月的檢方證人證詞，包括稅務、銀行與反洗錢官員。The trial heard nearly four months of testimony from prosecution witnesses, including tax, banking and anti-money laundering officials.

檢方表示，他們認定與杜特蒂及其家人有關的資產，不是未列入她的財產申報，就是與她的淨資產不符。一名出庭作證的法務財務分析師表示，杜特蒂可能有超過8億披索（1,270萬美元）的來源不明資產。Prosecutors say assets they linked to Duterte and her family were either missing from her declarations or inconsistent with her net worth. A forensic financial analyst who testified said Duterte could have more than 800 million pesos ($12.70 million) in unexplained assets.

杜特蒂的律師否認此說，並於週一傳喚24名證人中的第一名。杜特蒂稱相關程序是政治騷擾，並否認有不法行為。Duterte's lawyers rejected that and called their first of 24 witnesses on Monday. Duterte has called the proceedings political harassment and denies wrongdoing.

其他指控怎麼了？WHAT HAPPENED TO THE OTHER CHARGES?

眾議院最初以4項指控彈劾杜特蒂，包括濫用公款、累積來源不明財富、賄賂，以及威脅總統小斐迪南・馬可仕（Ferdinand Marcos Jr）、第一夫人和一名前眾議院議長的生命。The House of Representatives impeached Duterte on four charges initially, including misusing public funds, accumulating unexplained wealth, bribery and threatening the lives of President Ferdinand Marcos Jr, the first lady, and a former House Speaker.

多數指控撤回後，程序應會縮短，也提高了年底前作出裁決的可能性。The withdrawal of most of the charges should shorten proceedings, raising the prospect that a verdict could be reached before year-end.

上一次彈劾審判是在2012年，時任最高法院首席大法官雷納托・科羅納（Renato Corona）最後遭定罪；當時辯方結束陳述後數日便作出裁決。In the last impeachment trial in 2012, which resulted in the conviction of then Supreme Court Chief Justice Renato Corona, the verdict came a few days after the defence concluded.

要讓杜特蒂定罪需要什麼條件？WHAT IS NEEDED TO CONVICT DUTERTE?

根據憲法，定罪遭彈劾官員需要三分之二參議員支持，也就是16或24票；但在杜特蒂的審判中，門檻已被更改。Under the constitution, two-thirds of Senators — or 16 or 24 — are required to convict an impeached official, but in Duterte's trial the threshold has been changed.

9月一項重大裁定將檢方取得定罪所需票數從16票降至14票，原因是有4名擔任審判員的參議員不能參與。In a major ruling in September, the number of votes prosecutors need for a conviction was lowered from 16 to 14, because four senator-judges cannot participate.

他們因其中一些人面臨法律行動而被排除在外，相關事項包括一項數十億美元公共工程計畫的醜聞，以及國際刑事法院（International Criminal Court）對杜特蒂父親主導的血腥「毒品戰爭」所展開的調查。They were sidelined due to legal actions against some, which include a scandal in a multi-billion-dollar public works programme, and the International Criminal Court's investigation into a bloody "war on drugs" led by Duterte's father.

由於未來可能有更多擔任審判員的參議員面臨各自的法律程序，這項投票門檻變更可能具有更廣泛影響。With the possibility that more senator-judges could be subject to separate legal proceedings, the change in the vote threshold could have broader implications.

會有足夠票數讓她定罪嗎？WILL THERE BE ENOUGH VOTES TO CONVICT HER?

雖然較低門檻被視為對檢方有利，但要取得定罪仍可能是一項挑戰。While the lower threshold is seen as favourable for prosecutors, it could still be a challenge to secure a conviction.

菲律賓的政治效忠關係變動不定，而杜特蒂在參議院內外都有具影響力的盟友，使結果難以預測。Political loyalties in the Philippines are fluid, and Duterte has influential allies in the Senate and beyond, making the outcome difficult to predict.

這場審判的背景，是杜特蒂與馬可仕之間的嚴重決裂；兩大家族曾結成強大政治聯盟，攜手贏得2022年選舉，但該聯盟後來瓦解。The trial came with the backdrop of a bitter fallout between Duterte and Marcos that followed the collapse of the once-powerful political alliance between their families, which joined forces to win the 2022 election.

這場審判在政治上可能有何影響？WHAT IMPACT CAN THE TRIAL HAVE POLITICALLY?

杜特蒂計畫在2028年競選總統，民調也一貫顯示，她是接替馬可仕的領先人選。馬可仕受單一任期限制，不能尋求連任；他曾表示會支持一名接班人。Duterte plans to run for president in 2028 and surveys consistently show her as the frontrunner to succeed Marcos, who cannot seek re-election and is limited to a single term. He has said he would endorse a successor.

若遭定罪，杜特蒂可能被免除副總統職務，並被取消擔任公職資格，可能使這名最有力競爭者退出2028年大選。A conviction could remove Duterte as vice president and disqualify her from holding public office, potentially knocking the top contender out of the 2028 race.

這使審判影響超越杜特蒂任期剩餘年限，也讓外界關注每位參議員將如何投票；其中一些參議員本身也有政治抱負。That gives the trial consequences beyond the remaining years of Duterte's term and has focused attention on how individual senators, some of whom have their own political ambitions, will vote.

如果杜特蒂被定罪，接下來會怎樣？WHAT HAPPENS IF DUTERTE IS CONVICTED?

如果杜特蒂被免職，馬可仕將從參議院與眾議院議員中提名一名新副總統，並須由兩院分別投票，以各自多數同意確認。If Duterte is removed, Marcos would nominate a new vice president from among members of the Senate and lower house, who must be confirmed by a majority of both chambers, voting separately.

如果獲判無罪，杜特蒂將繼續擔任副總統，並可在2028年角逐總統；不過，遭彈劾官員仍可能另行面臨刑事程序。If acquitted, Duterte would remain vice president and could pursue the presidency in 2028, although an impeached official can still face separate criminal proceedings.

杜特蒂目前因據稱威脅馬可仕及其家人，正面臨審判法院一起刑事案件。法院下令逮捕她後，她已於9月交保。Duterte is facing a criminal case before a trial court in connection with the alleged threats she made against Marcos and members of his family. She posted bail in September after the court ordered her arrest.

（Karen Lema報導；David Stanway、Martin Petty編輯）(Reporting by Karen Lema; Editing by David Stanway, Martin Petty)