As Yemen's conflict enters its second decade, the path to peace remains uncertain, with regional dynamics continuing to play a crucial role in shaping the country's future, analysts noted.
SANAA, Sept. 21 (Xinhua) -- Yemen is still facing a protracted political, humanitarian, and developmental crisis, 10 years after the full breakout of civil conflict marked by the Houthi forces' capture of Sanaa, Yemen's capital, on Sept. 21, 2014.
The latest round of the Gaza conflict and its spillover effect have once again dimmed the prospects for peace in Yemen following the historical reconciliation between Saudi Arabia and Iran in March 2023. As the civil conflict drags on, the Yemeni people are still finding themselves yearning for peace.
A NATION DIVIDED
Ten years after the Houthis' takeover of Sanaa, Yemen presents a stark picture of north-south division.
The Houthis control most of the northern areas, including Sanaa and the strategic Red Sea port of Hodeidah. The internationally recognized Yemeni government, led by the Presidential Leadership Council since April 2022, mainly controls the southern and eastern regions, with Aden serving as the temporary capital.
The central Marib province and southwestern Taiz province remain hotly contested. Adding to the complexity, extremist organizations such as Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula exploit the instability, operating in remote areas of southern Yemen.
United Nations (UN) Special Envoy for Yemen Hans Grundberg warned in July that despite reduced violence since the 2022 ceasefire, "the threat of another full-scale war still exists." Conflicts in areas like Hodeidah and Taiz continue to claim lives, underscoring the fragility of the situation.
The toll on Yemeni civilians has been catastrophic. UN agencies estimate that by the end of 2021, the conflict had directly and indirectly caused 377,000 deaths. The UN has declared the Yemen situation "the largest humanitarian crisis in the world."
Currently, about 21.6 million people -- two-thirds of Yemen's population -- rely on humanitarian aid. Alarmingly, approximately 2.7 million Yemeni children are at risk of acute malnutrition, painting a grim picture of the country's future.
LIMITED SUCCESS IN PEACE EFFORTS
Over the past decade, multiple international efforts to promote peace in Yemen have yielded limited success. A notable ceasefire agreement in April 2022 lasted six months before expiring, though both sides have largely maintained a "de facto ceasefire" since then.
Tang Zhichao, a professor specializing in Middle East politics at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences (CASS), said that Yemen's conflict was deeply intertwined with regional geopolitics, and the Saudi-Iran relationship has significantly influenced Yemen's trajectory.
Hope briefly surged when Saudi Arabia and Iran reached a historic reconciliation in March 2023, leading to direct dialogue between Saudi Arabia and the Houthis.
"We've already seen some positive effects from the Saudi Arabia-Iran reconciliation," said Muqbel Naji, a political expert based in Aden, noting Yemen's warring sides had started exploring peaceful solutions, "though these attempts haven't been entirely successful yet."
However, this progress was soon overshadowed by the outbreak of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.
UNCERTAIN PERSPECTIVES ON PEACE PROCESS
As regional tensions escalate, the prospects for Yemen's peace process appear increasingly bleak. The Houthis, asserting solidarity with Palestine, have attacked Israeli and U.S.-linked vessels in the Red Sea and targeted cities such as Eilat and Tel Aviv. These actions have triggered U.S. airstrikes and led to the Houthis being re-designated as a "terrorist organization."
Tang believes a breakthrough in the peace process remains unlikely in the short term, emphasizing the need for ongoing dialogue to address conflicts and differences, with the ultimate aim of reconciliation.
The Houthis have deeply embedded themselves in Yemeni society, influencing nearly every facet of life in the country, Naji said. This entrenchment has exacerbated divisions between the Houthis and other segments of Yemeni society.
As Yemen's conflict enters its second decade, the path to peace remains uncertain, with regional dynamics continuing to play a crucial role in shaping the country's future, analysts noted.
The complexity of Yemen's situation presents a formidable challenge to peace efforts. "Yemen's conflict is a Gordian knot of local grievances, regional rivalries, and international interests. Untangling it will require patience, creativity, and above all, a genuine commitment from all parties involved," Tang said. ■
留言 0