Analysts said that from the start of the trial to the final ruling of South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol, the process is highly complex and fraught with uncertainty. The political turmoil in South Korea is expected to persist for some time.
SEOUL, Jan. 14 (Xinhua) -- South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol, as expected, did not show up on Tuesday at the first hearing of his impeachment trial at the country's constitutional court.
Yoon's defense counsel said Sunday that concerns remained about safety and mishaps as investigators continued their attempt to execute a warrant to arrest the impeached president. The president will be present at any time when the safety issue is resolved, said the counsel.
WHAT'S THE PROCEDURE TO REVIEW YOON'S IMPEACHMENT
The impeachment motion against Yoon was passed in the National Assembly on Dec. 14, 2024, and was delivered to the constitutional court to deliberate for up to 180 days.
Yoon, who was named by investigators as a suspected ringleader on an insurrection charge, declared martial law on the night of Dec. 3, but it was revoked by the National Assembly hours later.
Besides Tuesday's hearing, the constitutional court also planned to hold hearings on Jan. 16, 21, 23 and Feb. 4.
According to South Korean laws, the parties involved must appear for the hearings. If a party is absent, the court will conclude the session and schedule the next hearing date. However, if a party fails to appear for a second time, the court may proceed with the trial in their absence.
Local media said that, given the significant public division over Yoon's impeachment, the court will fully ensure the number of hearing sessions. This may result in additional public hearings beyond the five already scheduled, but the exact number of additional hearings remains unclear.
The country's legal community predicts that since the terms of two judges appointed by former President Moon Jae-in will end on April 18, public opinion in South Korea suggests that the constitutional court is likely to deliver its decision before this date. They said that the constitutional court would conclude the hearings by late February to early March and announce its ruling between mid-March and late March.
WHAT'S THE PROSPECTS OF YOON'S IMPEACHMENT TRIAL
The constitutional court's ruling remains uncertain due to factors such as the court's trial procedures, the vacancy of one judge, and the intense political struggle between domestic factions.
Currently, the nine-member constitutional court consists of eight judges, with one additional judge's appointment temporarily postponed by acting President Choi Sang-mok. To impeach Yoon, at least six judges must vote in favor.
According to local media, among the eight judges, two were appointed by Moon, two were appointed by the chief justice during Moon's administration, and one was recommended by the opposition. These five judges are considered more likely to support the impeachment.
Of the remaining three judges, the judge handling Yoon's impeachment case, Cheong Hyung-sik, is considered conservative and was appointed by Yoon. Another was appointed by the current chief justice, and one was recommended by the ruling party. The three judges are considered less likely to support the impeachment.
Additionally, the constitutional court has recently called for the swift appointment of the remaining judge to restore the nine-member system. Analysts suggest that if the last judge, recommended by the opposition party, is appointed, the required six votes for impeachment might be secured, significantly increasing the likelihood of a successful impeachment.
Some also believe that, to prevent division among the public and national chaos resulting from a split decision, the constitutional court may opt for a unanimous ruling, as was the case during the impeachment of former President Park Geun-hye.
Tang Xiao, a researcher at the Department for Asia-Pacific Studies of the China Institute of International Studies, said the approval of an arrest warrant for a sitting president for the first time in the country suggested initial judicial recognition of Yoon's potential illegal actions in issuing martial law orders.
Meanwhile, local polls showed that 64 percent of South Koreans support Yoon's impeachment and hope this will restore stability and normal governance to the country. Although the ruling party is still attempting to delay the process, the overall situation remains highly unfavorable for Yoon, said Tang.
Analysts said that from the start of the trial to the final ruling, the process is highly complex and fraught with uncertainty. The political turmoil in South Korea is expected to persist for some time.■
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