Facing a pivotal moment, where its role as a critical partner for the United States has shifted to that of an observer, Europe is confronting the fallout of its long-held reliance on Washington for security.
BRUSSELS, Feb. 24 (Xinhua) -- The prolonged Ukraine crisis has revealed a deep-seated dilemma for Europe, where long-term military dependence and trust in the United States has left the continent marginalized in geopolitical decision-making.
As the crisis enters its fourth year, U.S. President Donald Trump announced his intention to end the conflict and sent a high-level delegation on Tuesday to meet the Russians in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, without representatives from Ukraine or Europe. The Riyadh meeting involving Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov and U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio was the first face-to-face interaction between senior U.S. and Russian officials since the outbreak of the Ukraine crisis three years ago.
Trump is also pushing Kiev to hand over a significant share of its rare minerals as compensation for U.S. money spent on the Ukraine crisis.
Facing a pivotal moment, where its role as a critical partner for the United States has shifted to that of an observer, Europe is confronting the fallout of its long-held reliance on Washington for security.
EUROPE SIDELINED IN PEACE TALKS
Since the United States and Russia sidelined Europe in their bilateral Ukraine peace talks, European leaders have been grappling to unite a common position regarding Ukraine's post-war future.
Multiple meetings in Brussels and Paris, as well as phone calls between several European leaders and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, have demanded that the Ukraine peace talks must have Ukrainians and Europeans at the table. However, just before French President Emmanuel Macron and British Prime Minister Keir Starmer travel to Washington to dissuade Trump away from a hasty Ukraine deal with Russia, Trump publicly blamed the two leaders for having done nothing to help Ukraine throughout the conflict.
While cooperation with the United States remains the mainstream opinion in Europe, many European leaders view the present dilemma as a wake-up call for long overdue European strategic autonomy and defense capabilities.
Labeling the EU as the "second-biggest loser" after Ukraine in the conflict, Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico criticized the EU for following the policies of former U.S. President Joe Biden without independent judgement.
On as early as Feb. 13, Fico predicted that Trump would discontinue Biden's support for Ukraine, force Europe to buy even more U.S. gas and oil, and force NATO allies to remarkably increase their defense spending.
German newspaper Handelsblatt, in an article titled "Europe is losing the war in Ukraine," commented that anyone "who only pays and does not defend their interests should not be surprised if others decide about the future."
Three years of conflict has cost the EU and its member states nearly 170 billion euros (178.8 billion U.S. dollars) in aid to Ukraine, exceeding U.S. contributions, though Trump claimed otherwise.
"This is a strategic and political failure of the first order," the article said.
EXPANDING U.S. ECONOMIC INFLUENCE ACROSS EUROPE
Since the conflict broke out, Europe has been forced to shift energy reliance from Russia to America, particularly after the bombing of the Nord Stream natural gas pipelines.
Croatian political analyst Robert Frank observed that the United States has leveraged the conflict to tighten its grip on Europe's gas supply.
"The United States sells gas to European countries at significantly higher prices than Russian gas cost, and America wants to continue to hold onto that market, regardless of the peace initiative," he said.
Energy costs in Europe are likely to remain high in the long term, as the continent cannot afford to become dependent on Russian gas again if it wants to maintain a stable peace in Ukraine, Handelsblatt analyzed in its article.
Arms sales have been another major gain for the U.S. defense industry. Washington has pushed European nations to purchase U.S.-made weapons for Ukraine. In 2024, U.S. military equipment sales to foreign governments soared by 29 percent, hitting a record 318.7 billion dollars, according to the U.S. State Department. The surge was fueled by countries seeking to replenish stocks sent to Ukraine.
Arming Europe with U.S. weapons means that Europeans will have to spend significantly more on defense in the future, which will lead to cuts in social benefits and investments, the Handelsblatt article warned.
UNCERTAIN U.S.-LED PEACE PROGRESS
As the Riyadh talks have so far failed to produce any tangible breakthroughs, analysts remain skeptical about the prospects of a U.S.-led peace initiative.
Igor Mekina, editor-in-chief of Insajder.com, a Slovenian news website, said that resistance from Ukraine and Europe will complicate any U.S.-Russia agreement on Ukraine.
The conflicts in Ukraine will continue, "this time with the help of European allies. Despite the peace talks in Riyadh, we are still facing several months of (conflicts), and even more," Mekina said.
This sentiment was echoed by Rainer Saks, an Estonian security expert.
"If the United States thinks it can force Ukraine to accept a deal it has agreed upon with Russia, it is mistaken," Saks told Esimene stuudio, an Estonian TV program, adding that no real peace plan has been formulated yet, with the battlefield continuing to shape the course of diplomatic discussions.
Describing the U.S. administration as "greatly overestimating their capabilities," the expert said: "Two countries cannot agree on such a matter alone. The U.S. approach suggests that it probably lacks a clear strategic plan. It is very focused on protecting its own interests under the current leadership."■