- Education tourism is hugely popular among wealthier families, but health concerns, travel restrictions and uncertainty about school holidays mean that this year most youngsters will be staying at home
- Shanghai-based Only Education says it helped 1,000 children study overseas in 2019, but this year the figure could be zero
Usually at this time of year, Shanghai mother Kelly Cheng is putting the finishing touches to the preparations for her 10-year-old daughter's overseas study tour. The youngster has travelled to Australia and New Zealand in the past two years, but this summer, because of the coronavirus, she will be staying at home.
"In previous years, we'd have already booked the school, paid the fees and bought the plane tickets by now," Cheng said.
"But this year, there's too much uncertainty, so we can't make any plans."
International study tours have become very much de rigueur for China's more affluent families in recent years. In 2019, the so called education tourism market was worth 33 billion yuan (US$4.6 billion), with about 1.3 million youngsters spending part of their summer holidays studying overseas, according to a report by Beijing-based consultancy Huaon.com.
But with much of the world now in the grip of a Covid-19 pandemic " as of the weekend the disease had claimed more than 12,700 lives, with close to 290,000 people infected " the industry has ground to halt.
Cheng's elder daughter, nicknamed Tingting, joined a four-week study programme at a school in Australia last year and spent five weeks in New Zealand in 2018.
But this year, parents are not even sure when the holidays will be, as schools across the country " including the one Tingting attends " are still closed because of the government's containment efforts.
For weeks, children have attended online lessons to help keep them up to date, but the disruption the health crisis has caused to their education is likely to mean a shorter summer holiday.
"Because of the disease, we're not sure when school will reopen or when the summer holiday will start. So we definitely won't be going away on a study tour this year," said Cheng, who also has a two-year-old.
She said that she and her daughters usually travelled overseas with other families that had children of a similar age, and made all the arrangements themselves.
"We share a rented house and live together," she said.
Others leave the preparations to specialist firms, like Shanghai-based Only Education.
Liu Zeyang, who manages the company's study tour department, said that last year the firm arranged trips both within China and overseas for more than 1,000 youngsters. This year, the figure could be zero, he said.
"If the epidemic continues to worsen outside China and isn't under control by the end of May, all of the overseas study tours for this summer could come to a complete halt," Liu said.
"Several (Chinese) provinces are considering banning public schools from organising group tours, which will have a huge impact on the domestic study tour market."
Wendy Wu, who helps to arrange study tours for Chinese families to South Australia, said that last summer she placed more than 60 children. This year she has received just 20 applications.
"The epidemic has hit us really badly," she said. "We daren't recruit any more students. What's worse, those who have already made reservations are hesitating and asking for a refund."
But it is not just parents who are changing their minds. Universities around the world have cancelled their summer programmes in a bid to prevent the spread of the coronavirus.
These include Cornell University and Berea College in the United States, Cambridge University's Pembroke College and King's College London in Britain, Uppsala University in Sweden and Hong Kong University of Science and Technology.
Despite the gloomy short-term outlook, Liu said he was optimistic about the industry's future.
"It can recover quickly once the disease is under control, when a vaccine or special treatment is developed, or the virus gradually disappears like Sars," he said.
It was a similar message from international education company EF English First, which said that although its usual peak booking season for overseas trips was March to May, it was currently adopting a wait-and-see approach.
Although some overseas bookings had been taken and arrangements were being made, the safety of students and staff was the priority and plans would be changed as necessary in accordance with the situation, it said.
"Most of our students and parents have expressed their understanding," it said.
Cheng said that despite missing out this year, she hoped to be able to take Tingting to study abroad next summer.
"Letting her experience different cultures and broaden her horizons is more important than just her academic performance," she said.
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