- From the epicentre in China to the rest of the world connected by trade and supply links, no industry or sector is apparently safe from the damage wrought by the epidemic. The longer-term costs are hard to predict, but pain is certain
It is still too early for any official data to emerge on the economic impact of the coronavirus, but it is going to be dramatic. It is not possible to close down huge swathes of "the world's factory" and second-largest economy and not lose output.
Wuhan is locked down; Beijing, Shanghai and Singapore are off the boil, and Hong Kong and Shenzhen city centres bask in a perpetual, pollution-free, sunny, Sunday morning time warp.
Most bank analysts are edging down their forecasts of China's first-quarter gross domestic product growth from the 6.1 per cent anchor of last year. Citi, Goldman Sachs, Nataxis and UBS have all downgraded their forecasts for first-quarter growth, indicating an annualised rate of around 5.5 per cent.
Zhang Ming, of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, says first-quarter growth could come in at 5 per cent, and "possibly below".
The Economist Intelligence Unit is braving 4.9 per cent for full-year growth; Oxford Economics 3.8 per cent for the first quarter. Diana Choyleva, of Enodo Economics, believes China grew 3.7 per cent in 2019 " and possibly lower this year. JOrg Wuttke, of the EU Chamber of Commerce in China, targets 2 per cent or below.
One wag said that official Chinese GDP in 2020 would be 5.2 per cent " because that level would double the size of the Chinese economy in the decade from 2010, as promised.
These figures are based on an estimated four weeks of Lunar New Year break from production. It's tough for the big banks to risk official anger by cutting more. In reality, it's crystal clear that China will have its first quarterly recession, or negative growth, in the modern economic era.
The World Bank has previously predicted that a pandemic could cost US$3 trillion " wiping about 4 per cent off global annual output. The deadly but contained 2009 H1N1 virus was estimated to have wiped 0.5 per cent off global GDP.
The severe acute respiratory syndrome outbreak shaved a relatively small sum, estimated at US$40 billion, off global economic growth. The officially named 2019-nCov is spreading six times faster than Sars did, even though the containment measures have been immeasurably stricter.
The slowdown won't stop in the first quarter; spending on haircuts and expensive meals out never catch up, for example.
Meanwhile, factories will take weeks to wind up. Foxconn, which runs Apple's biggest factory employing 200,000 workers in Zhengzhou, Henan, is stalled as out-of-town workers can only return from the holiday if provisions are made for quarantine. The Henan authorities can't risk having that many potential spreaders descending on their patch.
China's microeconomic indicators are flatlining. Its domestic and international air travel during the Lunar New Year period is down by about 40 per cent " and Hong Kong airport looks like a second-hand plane lot.
On one day last week, national passenger traffic levels were a full 85 per cent down compared with the same day last year, according to data compiled by Morgan Stanley and cited in the Financial Times, while daily coal consumption by the six large power generation groups was down 43 per cent year on year.
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Charts from Capital Economics' website show road congestion down by 25 per cent and property sales a tenth of recent averages. Bloomberg reports a growing number of companies delaying or cutting pay checks.
Pandemics have always plagued mankind, but global supply chains are now intimately connected. China accounts for over 40 per cent of the parts needed for electronic goods made in Japan, India and Canada; 30 per cent for South Korea, Taiwan and France.
Wuhan supplies a sizeable share of the world's car parts and, according to S&P Global Ratings, carmakers will have to slash production by about 15 per cent in the first quarter, with the impact rippling out to Japan, Germany, France and South Korea.
Luxury goods have a good deal to worry about. A reduction of the US$278 billion Chinese tourist industry is going to hit Southeast Asia hardest, but Japan is expecting some 400,000 cancellations this quarter. In China, half of the Starbucks and Levi's outlets and a third of Burberry stores were closed last week.
China's oil consumption is said to be down three million barrels a day. The Brent crude oil price has fallen from US$68 in January to US$58, with the International Energy Agency forecasting that global oil demand will contract for the first time in a decade during the first quarter of this year. Shipping companies are reporting a sharp drop in volumes.
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This is China's Chernobyl in terms of the initial cover-up, the overwhelming work of the immensely brave frontline heroes, and the ongoing worries about data transparency.
Some say that there has been an overreaction by the Chinese authorities, but the conservative attitude they have taken since Lunar New Year has undoubtedly inhibited the spread of the epidemic " and indeed the winter flu, which takes so many lives at this time of year.
The stock markets seem strangely unconcerned, with even Hong Kong and Shanghai recovering most of their pre-coronavirus levels. They are expecting a big liquidity stimulus from the authorities, but will have to assimilate the monumental cost to production on a fragile global economy.
The coronavirus may not put the world into another global financial crisis just yet " but it feels like a dress rehearsal.
Richard Harris is chief executive of Port Shelter Investment and is a veteran investment manager, banker, writer and broadcaster, and financial expert witness
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