- The two heavyweights duke it out on Saturday, knowing that past tournaments have been unkind to opening-game losers
- The game between the two favourites could tell us a lot about how the rest of the tournament may play out
Viewed in isolation, Saturday's pool B game between New Zealand and South Africa in Yokohama would seem to simply be a dress rehearsal for the final in six weeks, and an encounter some 24 years in the making.
Regardless of what World Rugby's much-maligned rankings say, these are the two best teams in the world right now, and should still be in November. But sport is rarely that straightforward, and whoever loses this game will have to do something unheard of if they are to win it all.
As defending champions and 11/8 favourites to win their third consecutive Webb Ellis Cup, the All Blacks have long been pencilled in for a place in the last two. After an impressive 2019, the Springboks have been installed as second favourites at 4/1, and some might suggest are the better team.
Under Rassie Erasmus they have won the shortened Rugby Championship, and are unbeaten this year. There is depth in every position, and a side who struggled under Allister Coetzee's disastrous stewardship are now unrecognisable.
Steve Hansen's New Zealand hardly need an introduction, and it would take a brave soul to bet against them, despite their somewhat patchy build-up. This is a team, after all, who have dominated international rugby for the better part of a decade.
For some, betting against either progressing to the final seems a foolish decision, but that would be a disservice to the three or four other teams, such as England (9/2), Wales (9/1), Ireland (10/1) and Australia (14/1), who will all fancy their chances.
Perhaps, more tellingly, it is also to ignore history, which is firmly against whoever loses Saturday's encounter.
Only once have a team that lost their opening game of the World Cup gone on to make the final. England, beaten 18-12 by New Zealand in 1991, recovered before eventually losing 12-6 to Australia at Twickenham.
Of course, that might also be because the big teams tend to play sacrificial lambs as part of a gentle introduction to the heat of battle. New Zealand have beaten Italy (1987), Tonga (2011), and Argentina (2015) by a combined 136-22 on the way to their three wins. England wracked up 84 points against Georgia in 2003, and Australia put 57 on Romania in 1999.
But, there is also the fact that only twice since the inaugural tournament in 1987 have two teams from the same group been the only ones left standing.
England, in defiance off all the odds and in what some regard as a greater team achievement than their victory in 2003, made the final in 2007 where they faced South Africa, who had thumped them 36-0 in the pool stage. The Springboks had topped the group and beat Brian Ashton's side 15-6 to win the trophy for the second time.
In 2011 it was the All Blacks and France, who met in pool A at Eden Park in Auckland, with the hosts winning 37-17. The final was a far closer affair, but the All Blacks eventually won 8-7, beating France to the trophy for the second time after their 29-9 win in 1987.
History then suggests disappointment for the side who lose, but it is hard to see where that crushing end to four years' hard work comes before a potential rematch. Neither team have an easy route to the final, but both would be confident of overcoming whatever is put before them.
The winners of pool B are likely to face Japan, or Scotland, the runners-up in pool A. The runners-up will likely face Ireland, who despite their recent struggles should win that pool. There will be tougher tests in the semi-finals from the likes of Wales, England, Australia, or possibly France, but again, nothing either side would fear.
Sport has a tendency to conjure up the odd upset or two, and if you're an All Blacks' fan, a mysterious bout of food poisoning, or Wayne Barnes' whistle, are never likely to be too far from your thoughts. There is also the intense pressure of knowing mistakes must be kept to a minimum during a World Cup, and they can do funny things to players, especially those experiencing it for the first time.
We have been here before, of course, and if things go as Hansen and Erasmus hope, the end of October will be filled with stories of revenge and unfinished business whether you're an All Black, or channelling the spirit of South African Nelson Mandela and the Springboks from that triumphant 1995 side.
The players are unlikely to give such things more than a passing thought for now, and history is not always destined to repeat itself, even if the record books are hard to ignore. But it is difficult to argue that whoever loses on Saturday will not just be on the back foot in the tournament, they'll be on the wrong side of history, and that is a place no team want to be.
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