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How the pro-democracy camp can play the long game and help Hong Kong elect the leader it wants

South China Morning Post

發布於 2019年12月13日00:12 • Albert Cheng
  • With their win in the district council polls, pan-democrats could make a difference in the next chief executive election. This is a cause they must unite around
  • To hold on to voter support, they must denounce the escalation of protest violence
Voters stand in line in Lam Tin during the district council elections on November 24. Photo: Bloomberg
Voters stand in line in Lam Tin during the district council elections on November 24. Photo: Bloomberg

The landslide in the district council elections last month was beyond everyone's expectations. The pro-democracy and anti-establishment camps won 17 of the 18 districts, and 90 per cent of the seats by one count. They will now have millions of dollars at their disposal.

Yet the pan-democrats shouldn't let the triumph go to their heads. For one thing, the vote was more a protest against the government than a vote for the most capable district councillor.

Also, some may have chosen to side with the pro-establishment camp as a vote against the violence that has rocked the city. This should alarm the pan-democrats. The escalation of violence has weakened support for pro-democracy forces among Hong Kong residents and overseas Hongkongers, and the pan-democrats can't afford this.

In the past six months, the role of the pan-democrats, especially the Democratic Party, in the leaderless protest movement has been minimal. However, their surprise win in the elections may renew their efforts to fight the system, and this time they must be prepared and united.

The burning issue is the district councils themselves, which have grown deformed under the pro-establishment camp's near monopoly. Changes in rules have made the councils a cash cow for the camp.

The pan-democrats' foremost mission is to restore transparency to the district councils (meeting minutes, budget systems " the works) and allow the public to monitor them, thus returning power to all Hongkongers. This could also pave the way for true democracy in Hong Kong.

White-elephant projects must be put on hold. The newly elected councillors should hold community dialogues as soon as possible and deploy resources where people will truly benefit.

Hong Kong election results are a win for Chinese people everywhere

Having gained the majority, pan-democrats should reform the district councils and put an end to the collusion between businessmen, politicians and triads. They would be liberating the district councils to perform their functions properly.

As we know, district councillors hold 117 of the 1,200 seats on the Election Committee that chooses the chief executive. For example, Beijing's preferred candidate, Carrie Lam Cheng Yuet-ngor, was elected by 777 votes in 2017. Minus the 117 votes of the district councillors, it would not have been much of a win. Meanwhile, the other candidates, John Tsang Chun-wah and Woo Kwok-hing, received only 386 votes between them. This number could increase to a more promising 503, with the addition of 117 votes.

By this logic, if in a future election an alternative candidate also gains the support of some enlightened businessmen on the Election Committee, Hongkongers may finally get a chief executive more of them would approve of. This is a cause the pan-democrats must unite around.

Under the system of proportional representation, it is unlikely the pan-democrats would gain a majority in the Legislative Council next year " unlikely but not impossible. For the geographical constituencies and "super seats", given the long-standing "golden ratio" of 6:4 in their favour, the pan-democrats may win 60 per cent of the seats. However, the functional constituencies will be the real test.

Since the handover, most of seats in the functional constituencies elected by individual votes " such as the education, legal and accountancy groups " have been captured by the pan-democrats. Following the political turmoil, more of these constituencies might turn yellow too.

Sorry Beijing, but Hong Kong will never be more like Macau

Beijing is always holding up Macau as the model of "one country, two systems" for Hong Kong to emulate. But bear in mind that the population of Macau is 620,000, of which only about 300,000 are voters; in Hong Kong, the population of Sha Tin alone is 650,000. Comparisons between the two special administrative regions don't really work.

When 800,000 people marched on Sunday, Hong Kong once again showed its determination to pursue democracy and police accountability. The pan-democrats who won last month on this wave of sentiment must live up to these expectations.

If they are serious about scoring a big win next year, they must secure the support of the voters concerned about the violence. They must condemn the arson attacks on court buildings, and ask the radical protesters to restrain themselves. This is the only way to retain support.

Albert Cheng King-hon is a political commentator

Copyright (c) 2019. South China Morning Post Publishers Ltd. All rights reserved.

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