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Eng

China’s show of military might risks backfiring

Inkstone

發布於 2019年10月15日16:10

China's military parade on October 1 " one of the largest in human history " to observe the 70th anniversary of the communist republic's founding was largely aimed at a domestic audience.

But the bigger impact of the massive display of Chinese military hardware was on the world stage, particularly on its neighbors and the US-led West, whether it was intended or not.

Beijing proclaimed that the parade was showing a "peace-loving and responsible China."

Nevertheless, the widely asked question is what was the motivation behind such a massive show of Chinese military might " which included more than 160 aircraft and 580 active weapon systems, among them new fighter jets, bombers and tanks.

China unveils a host of new weapons, such as the hypersonic DF-100, at a military parade on October 1, 2019.
China unveils a host of new weapons, such as the hypersonic DF-100, at a military parade on October 1, 2019.

The gigantic display has triggered concerns among China's neighbors over Beijing's rush to militarize the nation.

Yes, China's leaders believed it was imperative to upgrade the military to match its growing global interests as a result of becoming the world's second-largest economy.

Chinese strategists may also have wanted the display to demonstrate Beijing's determination to defend its core interests, including its disputed territorial claims in the South and East China Seas, its effort to bring back Taiwan under its control, and resist US intervention in these occasions.

It is also a show of resolve to compete with the US for regional and global influence and domination.

The aircraft carrier USS Ronald Reagan and warships operating in the South China Sea on October 6, 2019.
The aircraft carrier USS Ronald Reagan and warships operating in the South China Sea on October 6, 2019.

In recent years, China's overhyping of its military prowess has served to frighten smaller nations, such as Vietnam and the Philippines, alienating them from Beijing and prompting them to forge closer military ties with Washington to secure protection.

The rise of China's military is also likely to trigger arms races among its major regional rivals, Japan and India, and even China's quasi-ally Russia, as they speed up their military modernization to remain competitive.

Taiwan's President Tsai Ing-wen attends an unveiling ceremony for a new, domestically-developed trainer jet on September 24, 2019.
Taiwan's President Tsai Ing-wen attends an unveiling ceremony for a new, domestically-developed trainer jet on September 24, 2019.

The blue-water amphibious operations on display during the parade were designed for an assault on and occupation of Taiwan. Beijing views the island as a renegade province that must one day be united with the mainland, by force if necessary.

The People's Liberation Army has ramped up maneuvers close to Taiwan ahead of its crucial presidential and legislative elections in January. Reunification is a central part of Xi's goal of "national rejuvenation," also a key theme in the parade.

The show of military might will prompt Taiwan to speed up its program to upgrade its national defenses, and help convince the White House to approve more arms sales.

The most unintended consequence of the display, however, is the loud wake-up call sent to the US and its allies in the free West.

China displays military vehicles carrying DF-17 ballistic missiles, which are capable of striking the US mainland, during the National Day parade.
China displays military vehicles carrying DF-17 ballistic missiles, which are capable of striking the US mainland, during the National Day parade.

The thunderous show of complete missile systems " including anti-ship, anti-aircraft and cruise missiles, as well as a new long-range multiple rocket launcher " may push Washington to speed up the development of its land-based missiles, following its recent withdrawal from the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty with Russia.

The US believes that China maintains the world's "largest and most diverse" range of land-based missiles as it is free from any international treaty.

The Chinese-made DF-21D and DF-26 on display during the parade are dubbed "carrier-killer" missiles. The DF-17 is said to be able to carry a hypersonic glide vehicle that could evade US missile defenses.

The DF-41, capable of carrying 10 independently targeted nuclear warheads and with a range of 15,000km, could theoretically hit anywhere in the US and Europe, according to the Missile Defense Project at Washington's Center for Strategic and International Studies.

Chinese leaders attend a military parade marking the 70th anniversary of the founding of the People's Republic of China.
Chinese leaders attend a military parade marking the 70th anniversary of the founding of the People's Republic of China.

The utmost goal of the Chinese military is to achieve the Anti-Access/Area Denial (A2AD) strategy, a deterrent that would keep US warships away from China's coastline and areas of contention, while ensuring China's dominance in the region.

Fears of China's military are widespread and growing, as evinced by the alarm in news headlines that dominated global media after the parade.

Some Western military observers warned that the parade was evidence of the serious threat China poses not only to its Asian neighbors, but also to the rest of the world.

Beijing is walking a tightrope between its domestic and foreign audiences.

But the contrasting messages from its military parade will only undermine its efforts to improve relations with its neighbors and persuade Western nations to embrace a rising China, and all because it wanted to bolster the party's legitimacy by strengthening nationalism at home.

Cary Huang is a veteran China affairs columnist and was previously Beijing bureau chief for the South China Morning Post.

Copyright (c) 2019. South China Morning Post Publishers Ltd. All rights reserved.

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