- Act threatening punitive measures may have been greeted by protesters, but it will only cause more pain at a time when common sense should prevail
Negotiations in the United States trade war with China have reached a delicate stage, with a pause in escalation. The last thing Beijing needs now is distraction over a paramount issue in the relationship. The Hong Kong Human Rights and Democracy Act in the US Congress is shaping that way, after approval by the House of Representatives. It would need the Senate's go-ahead, the president's signature and political will to activate it. But China's array of official mouthpieces has already swung into a chorus of condemnation that drowns out Chief Executive Carrie Lam Cheng Yuet-ngor's description of the bill as extremely regrettable.
This is because Beijing sees the bill as raising a sovereignty issue, through an annual assessment of Hong Kong's autonomy and rights and freedoms under "one country, two systems", and a potential threat to the city's special trade status with the US and of sanctions on the city's leaders. Fiery criticism from the National People's Congress, the foreign ministry, Beijing's top policy body on the city's affairs and state media, warning of unspecified countermeasures against interference in China's affairs, leave no doubt about that.
This may be separate from the trade dispute and its direct effect on the mainland and Hong Kong, but the threat of punitive measures against the city and tit-for-tat retaliation actions against US business interests can only exacerbate evidence of a loss of confidence in doing business here. According to the most recent survey of members of the American Chamber of Commerce in Hong Kong, international businesses are feeling pessimistic about short-term prospects for the city amid escalating violence and political deadlock that fuel perceptions it is becoming a riskier place.
Given the process to be completed before the Hong Kong bill poses a real threat, it is part of a bigger picture at this stage. Critics here and in the US are targeting China through Hong Kong, and protesters are encouraged because they feel they have achieved something when the government has refused to concede demands apart from withdrawing the extradition legislation. As a reflection of local sentiment the bill is not to be discounted. Organisers claim 130,000 attended a rally in support of it in Chater Garden this week.
But the reality is that if US politicians push ahead and Hong Kong's status as a separate trading entity is revoked, both sides stand to suffer, as Lam has pointed out. Beijing would have no difficulty finding targets among an estimated 1,400 American companies and 85,000 citizens in Hong Kong. Notwithstanding the legislative, executive, political and diplomatic obstacles that may lie ahead of any kind of sanctions against Hong Kong, the city should prepare for the worst and cling to faith that common sense on both sides will ultimately prevail over a futile cycle of distrust and violence.
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