- Without unpacking the protests’ complex dynamics, dialogue and remedial action risk missing their mark
- Apart from policies targeting youth empowerment, assurances on ‘one country, two systems’, as seen before 1997, would go a long way towards easing the unrest
With protests in Hong Kong crossing 100 days, "one country, two systems" has undergone a trial by fire. Youth passion and idealism have been aroused for freedom and democracy. A protest theme song, Glory to Hong Kong, is gaining wide popularity.
An ill-fated extradition bill has ignited a prairie fire, fuelled by housing unaffordability, lack of upward mobility, widening inequalities, and social injustice. Looking deeper, the anger has much to do with a perceived erosion of identity, lack of youth empowerment, and hopelessness about the future.
Without unpacking the protests' complex dynamics, dialogue and remedial action may risk barking up the wrong tree.
Shortly before the "umbrella movement", a Democratic Party leader was surrounded by over 100 university students on campus who berated her for her party's ineffectiveness in not daring to take to the streets. I later asked some of the students if they wanted a revolution. Shocked to hear them reply in the affirmative, I asked how it would succeed. They said they didn't care: that was the spirit that overthrew the Qing dynasty.
With a lack of national education, we have a whole generation of "Hongkongers" whose sense of nationhood has become extremely extenuated. Their thoughts and ideas have been fashioned at schools and universities with a predominantly negative view of the People's Republic of China. Many are from middle-class families.
Meanwhile, an influx of mainland visitors, capital, goods, services and ideas has brought Hong Kong many benefits, but the arrival of hordes of ill-behaved mainland tourists, acquisition of assets by mainland entities, and a perceived erosion of the Hong Kong lifestyle have engendered much resentment. Protests since 2012 against indiscriminate cross-border parallel trading speak volumes.
The anger is compounded by a feeling that the government cares more about mainland integration than what the people think. A perceived erosion of Hong Kong's identity has led to the embarrassing phenomenon of protesters waving colonial-era and foreign flags, with slogans to "Liberate Hong Kong".
Moreover, Hong Kong's youth feel they have no direct say in the city's governance. Neither a toothless Youth Development Commission nor elected democratic legislators are adequate substitutes.
Adding to youth despondency is the narrow structure of our economy. Dominance of property and finance provides woefully inadequate diversity for meaningful careers.
What is more, "one country, two systems" will expire in 2047, when most young persons will not have reached retirement. Hence the hopelessness and determination to take matters into their own hands.
Nevertheless, despite warnings about Beijing's interference, Hong Kong maintains its top slot as the world's freest economy, according to the Fraser Institute of Canada. Allegations by activists appear overhyped, that Hong Kong is descending into "one country, one system", as at the UN Human Rights Council and the US congressional hearing on the proposed Hong Kong Human Rights and Democracy Act.
To Beijing and other observers, it would seem the protesters are being led up the garden path, tilting at windmills with their five demands.
Whatever appeal an independent commission of inquiry may have after the whole protest movement dies down, right now it risks becoming a rioters' sanctuary, as evidence tendered would mean escape from prosecution. Dropping "riot" charges and a general amnesty will undermine the law to deter violence.
The idea of free universal suffrage clashes with Beijing's fear that, in the absence of enactment of Article 23 of the Basic Law (against subversion and sedition), Hong Kong may elect a chief executive who pushes the city towards separatism. Protest banners with slogans of "self-determination" or "independence" are openly displayed. Shadows of foreign influence in aiding and abetting the protests have raised fears of a "colour revolution" in the making.
While Beijing cannot watch Hong Kong burn, it is alive to a possible "Hong Kong Tiananmen" trap engineered to subvert China's rise. In lieu of direct intervention by the People's Liberation Army, colonial-era "emergency powers" legislation is reported to have been dusted off and at the ready.
So, between a rock and a hard place, quo vadis?
First, youth passion and idealism must be channelled to productive ends with a real stake in Hong Kong's governance. A territory-wide "Youth Council on Hong Kong's Governance" should be set up, comprising members elected by the younger generation (say, up to 35 years old), one from each of the 18 districts. Its elected chairman should be given a seat in the Executive Council.
Second, together with all stakeholders, Chief Executive Carrie Lam Cheng Yuet-ngor should explore a more liberal universal suffrage package under the Basic Law, to be combined with enactment of Article 23. This may satisfy Beijing's concerns and allow Hong Kong to take the first step towards universal suffrage.
Third, realising the Lantau Tomorrow Vision would take too long. As already suggested, the government's land resumption powers should be used to buy back hoarded agricultural land for public housing, to dramatically reduce the waiting list.
Fourth, height restrictions under the small-house policy should be eased from three to six floors, with concessionary land premium to encourage the provision of subsidised private flats for young, first-time buyers, subject to suitable terms and conditions.
Violence works " it blew the lid off Hong Kong's discontent
Fifth, Hong Kong's separate identity should be promoted through positive channels of recognition, such as international sports and other competitions. The government should nurture more Hong Kong winners in these arenas and properly honour them.
Sixth, the young should be given vigorous training and financial assistance to launch start-ups or other business ventures in Hong Kong or elsewhere in the Greater Bay Area.
Seventh, a scheme should be started to match young people's proficiencies with projects in the Belt and Road Initiative. This would open up meaningful opportunities to explore how Hong Kong's unique role can enrich lives and careers internationally.
Eighth, more young talent should be recruited to the Policy and Innovation Coordination Office to enhance youth-oriented policy research and implementation.
Ninth, a comprehensive review should be undertaken with politically neutral education experts on how curriculums and teaching from kindergarten to university could instil a more balanced perspective on Hong Kong's identity, including China's modern history.
And 10th, as seen before 1997, to maintain confidence, a decision will need to be announced some 15 years in advance on what would happen after 2047. Subject to success, at a suitable juncture, Beijing should hint at extending "one country, two systems" for, say, 30 to 50 years. This would remove the uncertainties for the younger generation once for all.
Andrew K.P. Leung is an independent China strategist.
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